FOR THURSDAY: (8/24) Grains still in trouble, as corn keeps making new lows along with wheat. Favorable weather will support filling of bean pods and increase yields. Hogs still lower a few more days so sell rallies and cattle congesting before COF report but should go lower.Continue reading
Are cycles inverting with higher stocks?
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/23) Trade waiting on Jackson Hole on Thursday and it’s still the dog days of summer. Are cycles inverting with stocks higher and that will pull the dollar up and push T-notes and gold lower? Not enough information today to confirm that but logic is suggesting as much.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/23) We didn’t get an intraday pullback to 2430, as 2450 and then some came in quickly. 2459-60 is resistance now and patterns suggest a rally to 2463.25 and then a 15-tick pullback to 2448. We had thought that 2477 would be next on this move and computer models now suggest 2485-6. We’re open to 2520 into September. Our original monthly chart research had suggested a low on Monday and a recovery from there.
OVERALL: Market hit the abc completion in the 2415 region.
WEEKLY CHART: There’s still a good possibility that based on patterns that the current fall is a 4th wave and that a new high to 2500-2520 would be possible in September but a secondary high to 2477 is more likely. In the end we still max. 2300-2320 as a fall correction target with a multi-year high due into 2018. Market needs to hold 2400 into Monday and shoot out of there to open up that scenario. World violence cycles are strong the next few weeks and it won’t take much to unsettle this tired market.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Wednesday; lower Thursday; higher Friday.
Grains still in trouble
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/23) Grains still in trouble, as corn keeps making new lows along with wheat. Spreading against long beans is preventing beans from breaking and support from oil is helping. Cattle up one more day but then we would exit before pre-COF position squaring enters. Cold storage report is friendly and worth a day trade buy for hogs but not sure how long we can stick around.Continue reading
Trade waiting on Jackson Hole on Thursday
FOR TUESDAY: (8/22) Trade waiting on Jackson Hole on Thursday and it’s still the dog days of summer. We don’t like cycles on Tuesday and if the stock market doesn’t gallop on Monday night, it may still be a sale. We have a bias toward buying gold on dips and selling dollar rallies the next few days.Continue reading
Grains could bounce overnight from oversold conditions
FOR TUESDAY: (8/22) Grains could bounce overnight from oversold conditions but in the end they seem lower into Friday and even if they’re oversold, they’re in trouble. Would resell beans if they stay under 950 in the early morning and corn is rather beaten up but wheat going to 391 might pull it lower. Cattle are higher on Tuesday but feeders would look better with one more push lower.Continue reading
Expect high volatility next week
FOR MONDAY: (8/21) The total Solar eclipse is on Monday. They are dangerous to watch even with protective glasses so be safe. They can create eerie feelings so markets could be particularly wild if any wild news hits. We can only go with patterns analysis and watch key breakdown figures. Many world events will be triggered as a result of eclipses. Expect high volatility next week even if Monday is quiet for some reason because fund managers are still at the beach.Continue reading
Wheat not done until 405
FOR MONDAY: Not expecting a whole lot of movement. At some point we need to sell beans but have to be patient probably until Monday night. Wheat not done until 405 comes and corn still will hit 359 if you’re patient. We had noted that the last 3 years we didn’t get an August grain bounce and even with the best cycles nothing could happen until Wednesday. Impossible to be long. Waiting for a possible bounce into Monday to get something short but can’t count on anything. Beans closer to 939 or 946 could still offer a sale/hedge.Continue reading
Cycles very whippy the next 2-3 days
FOR FRIDAY: (8/18) We knew to sell on Thursday but the market didn’t quite get as high as we would have liked and we missed it and had not thought it would break so hard. Cycles are very whippy the next 2-3 days. Violence and terrorism cycles are strong into late August and so while we hope Barcelona and Virginia are it, we fear there’s more coming. Harder to hold trades overnight. Will have to see what the morning brings.Continue reading
Waiting for possible bounce into Monday
FOR FRIDAY: We had noted that the last 3 years we did not get an August grain bounce and even with the best cycles nothing could happen Wednesday. Impossible to be long. Waiting for a possible bounce into Monday to get something short but can’t count on anything. Beans closer to 939 or 946 could still offer a sale/hedge.Continue reading
Stock market tiring
FOR THURSDAY: (8/17) Stock market tiring and not getting good news with the dissolution of the Business Council. Still, cycles will turn better in the morning if the market doesn’t fold overnight. Gold cycles are stronger into next week so thinking we missed the buy and will get in. That would mean the dollar won’t let us go short at 9442.Continue reading