FOR FRIDAY: We had noted that the last 3 years we did not get an August grain bounce and even with the best cycles nothing could happen Wednesday. Impossible to be long. Waiting for a possible bounce into Monday to get something short but can’t count on anything. Beans closer to 939 or 946 could still offer a sale/hedge.Continue reading
Stock market tiring
FOR THURSDAY: (8/17) Stock market tiring and not getting good news with the dissolution of the Business Council. Still, cycles will turn better in the morning if the market doesn’t fold overnight. Gold cycles are stronger into next week so thinking we missed the buy and will get in. That would mean the dollar won’t let us go short at 9442.Continue reading
Grains looking more bearish Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: We had noted that the last 3 years we did not get an August grain bounce and even with the best cycles nothing could happen today. Looking more bearish for Thursday but no risk/reward on new sales. Only beans managed to bounce off of key support at 921. Wheat starting to project 405 and will pull corn to 359.Continue reading
Best chance for a S&P pullback is Thursday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/16) Waiting on FOMC for Wednesday but cycles seem the weakest if politicians get into any major fighting. S&P has the best chance for a pullback on Thursday but it may not be that big. Last day down for metals so let’s hope they don’t fall too much.Continue reading
Grains not bouncing
FOR WEDNESDAY: Grains not bouncing and closer to our target areas with some in already with lower targets of 363 on Dec. corn and 921 on Nov. beans or 420-1 on Sept. wheat still could come in. If you’re short, take partial profits on multiples. Chances for a huge bounce are small. Last 3 Augusts didn’t have a seasonal bounce not seeing much reason for one.Continue reading
Another volatile week ahead
FOR TUESDAY: (8/15) (8/14) Some saber-rattling already overnight. Will it reignite fears quickly? Thinking a volatile week but these sucker punch weeks often end higher and option expiration is higher and the market often goes up for them. Hard to hold and trade overnight but we’ll look for key patterns to keep us in tune.Continue reading
Cattle look lower this week
FOR TUESDAY: (8/15) Warm and wet conditions in the forecast will help grains and the trade is working on complete the patterns that were not quite complete going into the weekend. Patterns look just about complete on grains but one more push down would set up a buy for week for traders. Cattle look lower this week but need a 1-2 day bounce to get better prices.
DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (8/15) Market bounced to resistance at 376.25 and is down in the night session a more bearish corn report. Ideally we would like to see 367 or 363.50. We would look to take partial profits at 367 and some more at 364 if it comes in but not too worried that this market will run away to the upside, and certainly not buying. Seems like short-covering could continue later in the week and we may take partial profits off in the morning.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Tuesday and possibly recovering into Aug. 20; lower into Aug. 22.
Patterns suggest another high on gold
FOR MONDAY: (8/14) Markets remained bid in the direction of the crisis but were hoping that diplomatic solutions would develop over the weekend. If they do then most of our positions are in jeopardy. Patterns suggest another high on gold to 1306 and another low on S & P to 2417 or 2410 and another low on the dollar to 9239 so I suspect that the crisis will not abate until those patterns are complete.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (8/14) Aug. 9th was Bradley Major turn date that we had seen for weeks and the high on the S & P came in at 2488.75. The break has fallen about 59 points. Five waves down project 2417 with lower support at 2410 and 2400. We would think that the lower target needs to come in and then we’ll get a 3-wave bounce before another push lower. If that comes in quickly on Sunday night or Monday, we could get a strong bounce out of there next week if there are signs of a diplomatic solution.
We’re so used to sucker punches from the Plunge Protection team that we never quite trust the bears lead on this one. Korea hangs in the balance but Russia and China are trying to prevent a military confrontation and the Secretary of Defense continues to pursue diplomatic ties. We have more cycle lows than cycle highs dominating into Aug. 21st but the way news goes, if there is a sudden diplomatic solution, the market will take off.
OVERALL: We are assuming with cycle lows into Aug. 21 that a deeper break toward 2320 could happen by then if 2300 comes out. The 5665 region is very key on NQ 100 futures and that will have to be watched carefully also. We don’t want to move into Chicken Little territory but the cycles building up to Aug. 21 will create that energy much like we saw before the January 1990 Gulf War attack.
There is a small possibility that based on patterns that the current fall is a 4th wave and that a new high to 2500-2520 would be possible in September. In the end we still see only 2300-2320 as a fall correction target with a multi-year high due into 2018.
What’s next? Our geo-political cycles are still intense until Aug. 26 but things may not seem to ease until Labor Day so without N. Korea stepping back in a big way or China showing who is the Big Daddy, 2414 will come in quickly and that leaves 2320 to coming in sooner.
OVERALL: We estimate a drop to 2320 quickly. We wonder if it will be similar to the tensions building up into the Gulf War in 1990 where the market fell sharply into the fear and then rallied sharply when it was clear we would win. The parallel cycles the next few weeks are strong if we do take out North Korean missile launchers.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Aug. 21.
Grain patterns look just about complete
FOR MONDAY: (8/14) Patterns look just about complete on grains but one more push down would set up a buy for week for traders. Cattle look lower this week but need a 1-2 day bounce to get better prices. Hogs look mixed this week.Continue reading
Cycles indicate climax Friday/Saturday
FOR FRIDAY: (8/11) We won’t be bored with the dog days of summer through Labor Day now and I suspect traders are happy—it just makes taking stuff home harder and then getting in again in the morning. Not sure that Trump or Korea will give up any male/territorial ground and the better days for something happening is Friday/Saturday–and if not, we think it will intensify into Aug. 21. Possible it could have a build-up and release of tensions like the 1990 Gulf War and there are some interesting cyclical parallels. We’ll do our best to deal with intraday volatility.Continue reading