FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/2) Tuesday was a very exhausting and frustrating day as the market finally gave it up and we missed the boat and were bottom-picking. We still may be correct and off a day but will be patient and see what develops by morning. Countertrend buys do not need to be rushed into.
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First-of-the-month volatility likely
FOR TUESDAY: (8/1) First-of-the-month volatility is likely, as we often get larger-range days the 1st day of the week before employment report. Sometimes we can get a 20-30 point range in the S & P but then again the VIX is so low we would be thrilled to get 15. Dollar breaking down isn’t letting us in and gold and silver seem bid this week so maybe not the congestion we are used to.Continue reading
Looking to buy beans
FOR TUESDAY: (8/1) While speculators can have a bias toward being long grains into Thursday with seasonal patterns and cycles, there’s no reason to step in early. We probably can buy any weakness tonight or wait to buy with the funds on Tuesday. This is just an oversold play but patterns and confirmations for buys on beans from last week have us leaning that way. Corn and wheat have not confirmed and we would love to see lower prices and an exhaustion there for buys to set in.Continue reading
Cycles seem positive enough for some buying
FOR MONDAY: (7/31) We crunched data for August and September and have some results below. Monday is end of the month fund profit-taking and rollover on August gold and more sluggish post-vacation energy. Even if we’re worried about end of the month profit-taking on stocks, cycles seem positive enough for some buying with Tuesday/Wednesday having a better chance to fall.Continue reading
Beans have completed enough downside to negate new sales
FOR MONDAY: (7/31) Beans have completed enough downside to negate new sales. We have to think that could bleed into corn and even if we want to see lower prices to 355 on Dec. corn, we probably have to get through a congestive week of choppy action and not sure when it will break. We often get these 3-week, doggy August rallies in tight ranges. Beans are a clearer buy with the pattern completion if you have to be long. Will let the weekend weather news and dust settle out.Continue reading
Expecting a congestive day Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (7/28) Lately everyone heads for the beach on Fridays but maybe after they see GDP and Mich Sentiment. Despite some minor fireworks on Thursday, we’re not expecting them to continue on Friday and expect a congestive day.Continue reading
One more chance for weaker prices on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (7/28) We-re approaching end of the month, and fund short-covering may continue. We have one more chance for weaker prices on Friday and then we’re concerned that Monday and next week will be up and will start a 3-week August countertrend summer rally. Hogs are sluggish also and cattle seem a bit thin and we have gotten killed this week in choppy range and will leave it alone.Continue reading
One more chance for weaker grains on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (7/28) We-re approaching end of the month, and fund short-covering may continue. We have one more chance for weaker prices on Friday and then we’re concerned that Monday and next week will be up and will start a 3-week August countertrend summer rally. Hogs are sluggish also and cattle seem a bit thin and we have gotten killed this week in choppy range and will leave it alone.Continue reading
Trade didn’t like the FOMC news
FOR THURSDAY: (7/27) The trade didn’t like the FOMC news on the balance sheet and the dollar is sharply lower from it and T-notes rallies strong and stocks still have a ways to go to the upside and metals have like the news. Stocks are often up overnight after FOMC and sometimes brief profit-taking comes in. NQ 100 near 6000 will invite some round-number profit-taking easily.Continue reading
Grains to head lower for a few more days
FOR THURSDAY: (7/27) Should see grains head lower for a few more days but very oversold. We’re still open to selling beans and corn but wheat is too close to key support at 469.50. Cattle are often down on Thursdays and hogs still have a chance to reach to 8340. Continue reading