FOR THURSDAY: (8/10) We have a bias toward a fall into Friday for grains and if we get better risk/rewards the next day, we might consider being short a ½ position looking for a fall into Friday and then a recovery next week. Beans never completed pattern to 942, which stands a good chance of coming in. Wheat got close enough to 450 that not sure there’s much to do there and corn could be a sale closer to 390 at some point and we have to see more data. We may put out orders in the morning. We are inclined to expect lower action into Friday but could see the market recover to the upside starting next week. USDA report at 11 am.Continue reading
Markets may get rattled by North Korea tensions
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/9) Trade upset by more saber-rattling with North Korea and given an intensification of cycles into Aug. 26-27 around this, not sure it will end well. Stock market had Bradley turn for Wednesday. The market didn’t fall enough to confirm a reversal but the continued low-volume and tiring action will lead to profit-taking and something more formidable to the downside probably starting on Aug. 15-16 into Aug. 21. Markets may get a bit unhinged by North Korea so the easy trading may be ending but some traders like volatility so it will come Aug. 15-31.Continue reading
Grains sideways into USDA report
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/9) Expecting a sideways day before the USDA report and as always we will have to take positions during the report to catch the moves. We are inclined to see lower action into Friday but could see the market recover to the upside starting next week.Continue reading
Mixed cycles ahead
FOR TUESDAY: (8/8) Mondays rarely tell us much, as everyone is still at the beach but they do start coming back by Monday night so we could complete some patterns by the morning. We have a lot of mixed cycles with topping stocks, lower bonds, higher dollars and retracing gold this week.Continue reading
Cattle look weaker this week
FOR TUESDAY: (8/8) Grains opened slightly higher but still see them retracing into Thursday/ Friday and think sells are in order. Cattle look weaker this week if you can find a risk/reward. So crazy!Continue reading
Mondays continue to be doggy
FOR MONDAY: (8/7) Mondays continue to be doggy with a long holiday weekend for many. We have completed research for the next 3 months and published our new Fortucast Financial Visions issue, and some of our thoughts are included below. This is a transition week for stocks and we see a cycle low into Aug. 21 but it still may not be the final low of the summer. Dollar and gold need to retrace overdone conditions from the past week. T-notes probably had a game-changer report and we can be short most of the month.Continue reading
Current swings suggest Aug. 7 high
FOR MONDAY: (8/7) Corn and beans put in minimum pattern completions and don’t have to go lower but without much of a rally Sunday/Monday, they easily could go lower. Wheat is a more ideal buy at 451 and got close. Cycles look sideways to higher for grains on Sunday. Next week looks lower. We looked at the last 3 Augusts and they bucked the seasonal pattern to rally in August, which means we can’t count on it. Current swings suggest Aug. 7 high, Aug.11 low, Aug. 22 high. If key numbers on grains like 450 on Sept. wheat and 937-42 on Nov. beans at 369 on Dec. corn come in by Monday, then we could start sideways congestion into the USDA report and invert cycles. Continue reading
Most cycles are positive
Corn and beans put in minimum pattern completions
FOR FRIDAY: (8/4) Corn and beans put in minimum pattern completions and don’t have to go lower. Wheat is a more ideal buy at 451 and got close and it could hit overnight. Cycles look sideways to higher for grains on Friday and may hold up on Sunday. Next week looks lower. We looked at the last 3 Augusts and they bucked the seasonal pattern to rally in August, which means we can’t count on it. Current swings suggest Aug. 7 high, Aug.11 low, Aug. 22 high. Not sure what to do with crazy meats but have to be patient now at overbought conditions.Continue reading
Gold seems lower Friday
FOR THURSDAY: (8/3) Not expecting much on Thursday although stock cycles are positive into Friday and gold seems lower Friday and the dollar higher on Friday. Dollar seems lower next week. Oil is buy by late Thursday or early Friday.Continue reading