FOR TUESDAY: (7/18) Not expecting a lot of action this week. Reports are not that significant and summer vacations dominate. We’ll continue to go with short dollars and long gold over the next week. Cycles are very volatile and any surprises overnight could be exaggerated in thin volume.Continue reading
Cattle cycles very volatile, seasonals friendly
FOR TUESDAY: (7/18) Never quite sure how they will react to the crop reports but the market could stay bid into Thursday if there’s no major damage on Monday or Tuesday. Cattle cycles are very volatile but seasonals are on its side here. Hogs look mixed.Continue reading
Summer Mondays can have tight ranges
FOR MONDAY: (7/17) Summer Mondays can just have tight ranges. Cycles are unusually volatile into Tuesday. We’re concerned about the earthquakes at Yellowstone turning into a large volcanic eruption and there’s one cycle that could cause something in the next few days. It would be a monumental event bigger than Mt. St. Helens. It’s definitely brewing for the summer sometime. Still, without a trigger, stocks should continue higher even if we get a 1-day pullback. Dollar broke key numbers and should break to 9444 now.Continue reading
Grains could be higher Sunday into early Monday
FOR MONDAY: (7/17) Lately Sundays and Mondays have had strong upward moves when weather disappoints or turns more negative. We think the market could be higher on Sunday into early Monday but then give back gain on Monday, as new selling will emerge if we get that kind of gap. The pollination threat is out there if the weather doesn’t change and that should create a head-and-shoulders top for corn if we’re patient.Continue reading
Willing to sell gold
FOR FRIDAY: (7/14) Not expecting much with a summer Friday where everyone has left for the beach early and then they come back later on Monday. Willing to be short gold but not seeing much else for Friday.
OVERALL: More Yellen testimony and the 2nd day does not mean much. World stocks remain friendly and thoughts are for 2 rate hikes next year and dovish energy is supportive for the world. Would like to see the dollar make a slight new low and buying the dollar is somewhat countertrendish.
Energy is still expansive for stocks and bad news out of Washington doesn’t seem to rattle the market, as greed knows no bounds. Still room to buy T-notes and sell metals with next key target into July 18. We still would like to see lower pattern come in on the dollar to 9510 but it doesn’t have to.Continue reading
Grains look sharply lower Monday night
FOR FRIDAY: (7/14) Collapses in the grains usually can lead to cascading waterfall events as the trade heads for the exits. Still won’t rule out a head-and-shoulders bounce into Monday so chasing has to be followed by quick profits. We had suggested puts on strength and futures are crazy and will still be so. We had put out some early sales on beans and if we’re to get into corn it may be from bounce later. These markets don’t let one in easily when they fall apart. The market could congest before the weekend and be higher on Sunday into early Monday if the pollination scare happens but then looks sharply lower on Monday night after the crop report.Continue reading
Energy still expansive for stocks
FOR THURSDAY: (7/13) Energy is still expansive for stocks and bad news out of Washington doesn’t seem to rattle the market, as greed knows no bounds. Still room to buy T-notes and sell metals with next key target into July 18. We still would like to see lower pattern come in on the dollar to 9510 but it doesn’t have to.Continue reading
Thursdays are usually not kind to grains
FOR THURSDAY: (7/13) USDA days can be major changes of trend on the month. There is a conflict between hot and dry setting up into pollination and almost failing tecnnicals. Beans didn’t fail enough yet. I think this was the shake-out move and one divergent high can come but hard to hold grains this late in the season and not get killed. Use strength to stay protected with put options and futures may come through. Thursdays are not kind to grains usually and cycles are mixed into Friday. Running out of time.Continue reading
Trade waiting on Yellen testimony
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/12) Trade waiting on Yellen testimony on Wednesday but not expecting much shocking news. Stocks look higher and metals lower and oil lower and dollar lower a few days in congestive downward action. The next key point for financials appears to be into July 18 for a dollar high and metals low and T-note high.Continue reading
Volatile corrections ahead for grains?
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/12) The later we get each day into July, the more the market seems vulnerable. USDA report days are often turning points for the month. While we can see the market holding up as late as Friday, we could get volatile corrections here which would be 4th-wave before final highs. We foresee a cluster of turning points into Sunday/Monday, which means that even if the hot weather is there, the trade may start selling the fact. Trade waiting on USDA report for Wednesday but may not mean much if weather shifts. Usually by the 2nd week of July you have to be short corn. We watch patterns to keep us out of trouble and corn needs at least one more high to 424-7 on Dec. and beans to 1092-6. Wheat might get dragged to 590-600 and has the worst fundamentals. Cattle not happy with higher feed prices for now.Continue reading