FOR MONDAY: (7/24) Grains were lower on schedule on Friday. Sunday night looks higher and Monday lower but corn had a technical breakdown closing under the 20-day moving average. Beans are of course stronger and more vulnerable.Continue reading
No reports on Friday so it may be a doggy day
FOR FRIDAY: (7/21) Lately the trade has 3-day weeks in the summer with Fridays and Mondays, being a virtual summer holiday. No reports on Friday so it may be a doggy day. The Monday before FOMC can be volatile and have a big range of profit-taking and the stocks are getting tired going into next week.Continue reading
Weather could get beans up to 1061 by Sunday
FOR FRIDAY: (7/21) The longer-term weather seems somewhat dire with the drought monitor and that might be enough to get beans up to 1061 by Sunday but we never trust weather news. Corn may go along for the ride. We originally had cycles pointing lower on Friday for grains and we know how quickly weather flips and will evaluate in the morning.Continue reading
Cycles looking friendly for Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (7/20) Trade waiting on ECB for Thursday and then to FOMC for July 26. Markets will get more sluggish as we get closer to these next fulcrum points. Still nice and slow steady trading in places. Cycles are looking friendly for Thursday and remain bid for stocks going into the weekend.Continue reading
Look to take profits on long grains by morning
FOR THURSDAY: (7/20) We should see grains recover into the close of the night session but then they look like they turn lower into Friday. Hard to get away with longs in late July and they often sell the bad weather—which is very real. We would take profits on grain longs by the morning and may get short for a few days in case we get a meltdown.Continue reading
Trade waiting on ECB onThursday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/19) Trade waiting on ECB for Thursday and then to FOMC for July 26. Markets will get more sluggish as we get closer to these next fulcrum points. Still nice and slow steady trading in places.Continue reading
e have a bias for a recovery on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/19) We hate trading grain weather markets and should give it up and now that computerized funds have taken over it’s more challenging. We have a bias for a recovery on Wednesday but any new sneezes in the wrong direction from the weather people and we could be wrong. Latest forecast adds more heat and dryness but could change at 6 am. Technically we had a grain breakdown last week for corn and wheat. This week’s recovery is a bounce and the market is almost always down the last week of July so I expect that next break will come then.Continue reading
Cycles very volatile amid thin volume
FOR TUESDAY: (7/18) Not expecting a lot of action this week. Reports are not that significant and summer vacations dominate. We’ll continue to go with short dollars and long gold over the next week. Cycles are very volatile and any surprises overnight could be exaggerated in thin volume.Continue reading
Cattle cycles very volatile, seasonals friendly
FOR TUESDAY: (7/18) Never quite sure how they will react to the crop reports but the market could stay bid into Thursday if there’s no major damage on Monday or Tuesday. Cattle cycles are very volatile but seasonals are on its side here. Hogs look mixed.Continue reading
Summer Mondays can have tight ranges
FOR MONDAY: (7/17) Summer Mondays can just have tight ranges. Cycles are unusually volatile into Tuesday. We’re concerned about the earthquakes at Yellowstone turning into a large volcanic eruption and there’s one cycle that could cause something in the next few days. It would be a monumental event bigger than Mt. St. Helens. It’s definitely brewing for the summer sometime. Still, without a trigger, stocks should continue higher even if we get a 1-day pullback. Dollar broke key numbers and should break to 9444 now.Continue reading