FOR TUESDAY: (6/20) Crop conditions report showed a 4-point fall in wheat conditions and it might allow some spillover buying to corn and beans and get those market higher into late Tuesday or early Wednesday so that we can sell. Grains opened higher but maybe only wheat can run away and use rallies into Tuesday night and early Wednesday to add to shorts and hedges and cash sales. Cattle sill in trouble and still can be hold but buy dips on hogs.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (6/19) Can wheat continue to lead the way when corn and beans will be ok? We hate going into these weather weekends and have to use big stops to deal with the craziness on the news. The speculative cycle that topped grains last year is due right here so even if there’s a final flourish higher for Sept wheat to 490 or 500-1 over the next few days, that should be it. The issue is how much it will bring funds along for the ride into as late as Tuesday night? We still think that grains could be down hard on Sunday/Monday even if there’s a final recovery. Still, we found one more cycle that usually keeps grains up into Tuesday night or early Wednesday so we won’t get too aggressive with top-picking yet. We would continue to use strength to get rid of cash and get hedges on. Cattle seem lower for a few more days.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: We missed a speculative cycle into Friday which last has caused the major cycle top last June and we think it is probably repeating. That will have us cautious top-picking until at least Sunday.

JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold July bean shorts from 938 with a 946.50 stop.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (6/16) Beans didn’t recover as much but they are still vulnerable if the market gets carried away by the wheat. Market stalled at channel resistance and much above 942 would be friendly. Beans did issue a breakdown so this rally is just fund-swinging. Key support now to 919 and then all the way to 903. Stay with shorts. Not sure we’ll get much above 930 for new shorts.
OVERALL: Daily chart suggesting 895 and if acreage increases, it’s possible that lower prices to 837.50 or 850 will come. Still, for now, they may run it up to 962 and it may be a gift for hedgers and cash sellers.
WEEKLY CHART: Given that the market is close to 895, key support, we wonder if a breakdown to 837 or 850 is likely before it’s done when hedging pressure enters.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into June 19.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/7) Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. Demand’s good and old crop/new crop spreads were a factor, but there’s a long way to go in the growing season and a lot of uncertainty about acreage. U.S. planting and development are close to average, with the first condition rating of the season expected next week. Near term forecasts have hot, dry weather in parts of the Midwest and Plains. Soybean meal and oil were up modestly, following beans. Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying. This year’s U.S. corn crop is nearly officially planted, but there’s a lot of uncertainty about what that actually means in terms of acres. The USDA’s updated acreage numbers are due out at the end of the month and with the delays, re-planting, and even re-re-planting, the numbers could be interesting. The condition rating did improve 3% to 68% good to excellent. Ethanol futures were higher ahead of the weekly EIA numbers. New USDA supply and demand numbers are out Friday. According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, there’s a 50% chance of an El Nino event this year.

FOR TUESDAY (6/6) The trade was watching the U.S. planting pace with a mixed forecast for the Midwest and Plains over the next few days. As of Sunday, 83% of U.S. beans are planted, compared to the five year average of 79%, and 58% have emerged, compared to 59% on average. No states have officially wrapped up planting activity. Corn was also watching planting, and re-planting, weather, along with on the ground conditions ahead of the weekly USDA crop report. According to the USDA, 96% of corn is planted and 86% has emerged, both 1% slower than the respective normal paces. 68% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, up 3% on the week. Wheat was watching the weather as well with concerns about spring and winter wheat conditions, but the supply side of the market is bearish, especially for Chicago and Kansas City. For winter wheat, the USDA says 87% of winter wheat has headed, compared to 85% typically this time of year, and 10% is harvested, compared to 7% usually in early June, with 49% of the crop in good to excellent shape, 1% less than last week. For spring wheat, 90% has emerged, compared to 85% on average, and 55% of the crop is called good to excellent, a week to week drop of 7%.