Position squaring for long weekend

FOR THURSDAY: (4/13) Trade will be position squaring for the long weekend. We looked at cycles next week and they look friendly for grains and cattle but lower for hogs. We’ll probably want to add more grain on pullbacks on Sunday night. Not sure if the geopolitical tensions will impact these markets much. Crude looks lower next week although any nasty surprises could push it up to 5500 first.Continue reading

World political and tension cycles still strong into Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/12) World political and tension cycles are still strong into Wednesday and Wednesday night but may lift late in the week. We looked at cycles for North Korea and its President and he could easily not survive world pressures from China and the US this summer but there’s a lot of time until then. Usually these situations get worse before they get better so expect that the trade will stay on edge on Wednesday. Anxiety cycles and military reckless cycles continue into April 23 so if anything, things will heat up.Continue reading

Cattle very overbought

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/12) We completed grain cycles for the month and they look like they hold up longer than we originally thought so chances are we can be long at least into April 19-20. Cattle are very overbought now and near key pattern completions and we think pre-holiday profit-taking will set in by Thursday and continue into Monday. We took profits on hogs. There is a bit more to get on the upside but we’re nervous with rollover from April to June hogs on Monday and the cash/futures spreads.Continue reading

Grains oversold going into WASDE

AGRICULTURAL MARKETS OVERVIEW FOR TUESDAY: (4/11) Another USDA report and this one is too soon after the March 31 reports. Market oversold going into it as of Sunday night but not so much for corn now. We have a bias toward higher grain prices into Friday but need to buy value if we can still get it. Meats are acting sickly but we still would buy cattle and usually hogs are higher into Wednesday.Continue reading

Stocks mostly lower into Wednesday

FOR MONDAY: (4/10) These weekend breaks with saber-rattling are a bit unnerving, as Russia sends ships to the area and rhetoric flies. Cycles into April 13-14 do have more war/aggressive energy than the following week so getting through this week will be important but an underlying peace cycle may prevent anything series through late May. We have always worried more about war and violence July and August and that may be the more serious time period. Despite a decent finish on Friday, stocks look mostly lower into Wednesday of next week and it would not take much to trigger a weekly chart top, although we think NQ still could do a divergent high in May. The dollar should top out by Friday and be lower next week and gold and silver look lower next week and also T-notes which finally looked like they put in a reversal. These big-event days with extended ranges usually turn into key points for the month. If the news is volatile over the weekend, we will put out an update on Sunday night if we can but usually it’s too difficult to tell until Europe opens in the Middle of the night.

JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Sell June e-mini S & P at 2359 and 2364 with a 2368.50 stop.

S&P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (4/10) We moved stops to breakeven and got stopped but had suggested partial profits a number of times and the market never took out our original stop into the close. We have a bias for lower prices into Wednesday, but won’t rule out going to 2364-2366 on Sunday night if there is some calm and sanity in the world. The failure to break 2340 on a closing basis didn’t confirm a weekly chart top and even if we get to projections to 2325 or 2318 quickly, we could recover in a congested manner. We do want to get short but may not get the chance.

OVERALL: We favor a fall to 2318 with a first cycle low into April 12 to complete a 3-3-5 pattern. Because cycles are volatile into Sunday and news continues to be on the edge, you have to favor shorts but will put out orders higher if we can get.

BIG PICTURE: The week before tax returns is often bearish and some sell stocks to pay for taxes and seasonals seem lower before taxes are due. We have a bias for lower prices next week and if the market remains congestive and cannot drop, then they may take the market up into next Friday.

LONGER TERM: (3/27) Still can’t officially say we have a weekly chart sell signal until 2300 comes out on a closing basis. It may be a while before we know if a weekly chart top is in. Expecting a May high and a new NQ high unless NQ takes out 5200–and if that’s the case, we’ll get a divergent S & P high to maybe 2420. Expecting that 2050 is possible into October for a 15% correction and cycle low and if the market closes under 2300, we would see 2200. Too early in the game to get too beared up but you can favor shorts into the week of April 2-6 and watch pattern completions. Still have to pick your spots carefully.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into April 12; higher into April 14.

Key cycle low for grains by Sunday or early Monday

FOR MONDAY: (4/10) We have a key cycle low for grains by Sunday or early Monday and it can set up a countertrend buy if you want to be long into the USDA report on Tuesday. Weather news is largely good for crops but bearish for prices with the recent widespread rain to be followed by a few days of warm, dry conditions in both the Plains and Midwest. Rain returns to the Midwest on Sunday with severe storms expected in parts of Kansas, Missouri and Iowa. Next Tuesday is USDA’s monthly supply and demand reports. A Bloomberg survey showed the trade expects increases in U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks, plus some higher numbers for Argentina and Brazil corn and soybeans.Continue reading

Wild week continues

FOR THURSDAY: (4/6) We told you this would be a wild week and so far it’s living up to its billing and not over yet and should get wilder as we move into Friday. At this point we had some clear reversals on Wednesday but now need to get 62% retracements of them to get in better.Continue reading

Looking to buy hogs

FOR THURSDAY: (4/6) We’re willing to sell beans an wheat if we get a bounce and hogs should be a buy if we can get in lower. Cattle may be done here for now but we never like being long on a Thursday.Continue reading

Stocks, gold still look higher

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/5) Trade waiting on FOMC minutes. Stocks and gold still look higher and crude isn’t done until 5150 comes in and dollar needs 101. There should be a climax in pattern completions within a few days and the trick will be when will China news come out of the meeting on Friday and will markets be closed by then?Continue reading