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FOR THURSDAY: (4/6) We told you this would be a wild week and so far it’s living up to its billing and not over yet and should get wilder as we move into Friday. At this point we had some clear reversals on Wednesday but now need to get 62% retracements of them to get in better.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/5) Trade waiting on FOMC minutes. Stocks and gold still look higher and crude isn’t done until 5150 comes in and dollar needs 101. There should be a climax in pattern completions within a few days and the trick will be when will China news come out of the meeting on Friday and will markets be closed by then?Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (4/4) Employment-report week is often a congestive mess with wild swings and congestion triangle patterns. It makes trading erratic and tricky and you have to take the money quickly on short swings and jaunts. We don’t want to take too much home overnight with crazy cycles. Today’s first surprise was the St. Petersburg’s metro bomb and while the news had downplayed it, the smoking gun was found on the leaks and it was President Obama’s own Susan Rice. The media is more interested in making up Putin stories than covering a real scandal. Our world has changed so much since Walter Cronkite.

BACKGROUND NOISE CONTINUING: We’re moving into a potentially intense week politically and could spill over into the markets. On the calendar is a Trump meeting with China, and we have to think that N. Korean games could heat up this week. Spring cycles suggest a repeat of the June cycle that led to the trigger of Brexit and that cycle kicks in the week of April 3. Britain is invoking Article 50 on March 29, which will lead to a 2-year transition. This cycle also suggests more revolutionary energy for France on May 7 and eventually Italy. We last saw this cycle around Brexit and it created massive moves in the market, so the week of April 3 could also produce something like that. That in connection with an intense fear cycle could lead to a major turn if there’s a trigger. There is also the start of a 7-year cycle kicking from April 2017-2024 that will increase military and technological development, and it has an 84-year synodic period. It signals unpredictable, sudden occurrences, such as May 2010’s “flash crash,” when the Dow dropped 1,000 points in 5 minutes, wiping out many small investors. This cycle is connected electricity, shock, computers and inventiveness and social activism. It will be running for the next 7 years.

All of this puts us on alert not to take a lot of positions home unless you are clear on patterns and cycles and can manage risk.

FOR MONDAY: (4/3) We’re moving into a potentially intense week politically and could spill over into the markets. On the calendar is a Trump meeting with China, and we have to think that N. Korean games could heat up this week. Spring cycles suggest a repeat of the June cycle that led to the trigger of Brexit and that cycle kicks in the week of April 3. Britain is invoking Article 50 on March 29, which will lead to a 2-year transition. This cycle also suggests more revolutionary energy for France on May 7 and eventually Italy. We last saw this cycle around Brexit and it created massive moves in the market, so the week of April 3 could also produce something like that. That in connection with an intense fear cycle could lead to a major turn if there’s a trigger. There is also the start of a 7-year cycle kicking from April 2017-2024 that will increase military and technological development, and it has an 84-year synodic period. It signals unpredictable, sudden occurrences, such as May 2010’s “flash crash,” when the Dow dropped 1,000 points in 5 minutes, wiping out many small investors. This cycle is connected electricity, shock, computers and inventiveness and social activism. It will be running for the next 7 years.

All of this puts us on alert not to take a lot of positions home unless you are clear on patterns and cycles and can manage risk. For now, we’re seeing higher dollars and lower gold for Monday and higher stocks for Monday and higher crude.

FOR FRIDAY: (3/31) Many of our patterns failed to manifest for secondary highs as month-end profit-taking on gold and T-notes and long euros continued to hit early. Most of the cycles seem strong on Friday and we would need really bearish news to get a major breakdown, although we always think of profit-taking setting in for stocks at month and quarter end. Will see where the market is for the morning.Continue reading