Intense week ahead for markets

FOR MONDAY: (4/3) We’re moving into a potentially intense week politically and could spill over into the markets. On the calendar is a Trump meeting with China, and we have to think that N. Korean games could heat up this week. Spring cycles suggest a repeat of the June cycle that led to the trigger of Brexit and that cycle kicks in the week of April 3. Britain is invoking Article 50 on March 29, which will lead to a 2-year transition. This cycle also suggests more revolutionary energy for France on May 7 and eventually Italy. We last saw this cycle around Brexit and it created massive moves in the market, so the week of April 3 could also produce something like that. That in connection with an intense fear cycle could lead to a major turn if there’s a trigger. There is also the start of a 7-year cycle kicking from April 2017-2024 that will increase military and technological development, and it has an 84-year synodic period. It signals unpredictable, sudden occurrences, such as May 2010’s “flash crash,” when the Dow dropped 1,000 points in 5 minutes, wiping out many small investors. This cycle is connected electricity, shock, computers and inventiveness and social activism. It will be running for the next 7 years.

All of this puts us on alert not to take a lot of positions home unless you are clear on patterns and cycles and can manage risk. For now, we’re seeing higher dollars and lower gold for Monday and higher stocks for Monday and higher crude.

Hogs seem up into Wednesday.

FOR MONDAY: (4/3) Short-covering on corn likely to continue at least one more day and maybe two and that should pull beans up. Not interested in buying wheat but it will be a sale if 452.75 comes in. Cattle due for short-covering on Monday and hogs seem up into Wednesday.Continue reading

Most cycles seem strong on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (3/31) Many of our patterns failed to manifest for secondary highs as month-end profit-taking on gold and T-notes and long euros continued to hit early. Most of the cycles seem strong on Friday and we would need really bearish news to get a major breakdown, although we always think of profit-taking setting in for stocks at month and quarter end. Will see where the market is for the morning.Continue reading

Market often lower after the March acreage report

FOR FRIDAY: (3/31) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Will it happen on Friday at the report announcement? Starting to seem that way. Stats often have the market lower after the March acreage report. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long. Market does look higher after the report into early next week but will it kill bottom-pickers first. Dollar and crude are starting to recover, with the latter a positive for grains and the dollar projecting 101.00 and crude looks higher much of next week.Continue reading

Cycle highs for gold on Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (3/30) A string of inside days didn’t reveal much. We continue to suggest cycle highs for gold on Thursday and cycle lows for the dollar and stocks, and how much they fall will be key. Month-end position squaring by funds will hit by Friday and be a factor. We do want to sell gold and silver in case they come off sharply for the end of the month.Continue reading

Grain patterns suggest one more low

FOR THURSDAY: (3/30) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Will it happen on Friday at the report announcement? Starting to seem that way. Stats often have the market lower after the March acreage report. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long, and market does look higher after the report into early next week. Dollar and crude are starting to recover, with the latter a positive for grains.Continue reading

Weak cycles for stocks

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/29) Some markets are looking like they’re reversing but key numbers we discussed on Monday night have come in and now the weak cycles for stocks have to kick in the next few days to support all the positions we anticipate. We’ll wait for the morning to take new position. If we get weak retracements, then the market will start being more convincing for gold bugs and bears in the stock market.Continue reading

Hogs look almost done

FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/29) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Unclear whether it will happen. Rallies were not very strong or meaningful on Tuesday. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long, and market does look higher after the report into early next week. Cattle may have 1-2 more days to fall and hogs look almost done.Continue reading

Gold may have a last buy setting up

FOR TUESDAY: (3/28) Continued 2-day retracement likely for all overdone markets and then new thrusts into Wednesday/Thursday. S & P patterns are fairly clear as are T-notes. We still like the short side of crude if we see a big enough bounce. Gold may have a last buy setting up but minimum target is in.Continue reading

Short-covering into USDA report

FOR TUESDAY: (3/28) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long, and market does look higher after the report into early next week. Cattle may have 1-2 more days to fall and hogs look almost done.

JULY CORN (electronic ok)

TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/28) We are out of short corn. We see short-covering this week and it continues into next week and in case it turns into something bigger, we’ll have a light long position in place. Key support at 350 and 343 next if bounces are week and we break down later in April.
SHORT-TERM (3/13) Daily stochastics have crossed over issuing a sell signal. Pullbacks could easily to go key weekly chart support at 350-1 and if that goes, 336. Daily chart patterns suggest 321 into late April and early May if South American exports weigh on the market. Weekly chart support for May corn is key at 346.50. Cycle lows dominate into March 26-27. Usually the weeks before the March 31 USDA report are choppy. The market does seem to recover into the USDA report into mid-April but the late winter and early spring trade is still boring. We’ve seen so many conflicting weather forecasts for the spring that we’re not sure what to think. Given worldwide abnormalities this winter, some growing areas are likely to get impacted this year and support higher prices. Our own weather work had seen dry prices in June. Some forecasts are calling for a colder summer than normal, which is not a supportive factor. The chance for higher prices in June is pretty strong and we can probably do a typical hedge or cash sale there. We’re watching mid-June for now.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into March 30-31.