FOR THURSDAY: (1/26) Breakout move on stocks should not be top-picked. Should run out of steam by Friday or Monday and then congest before another push up. Cycles are still supportive into the week of Feb. 6 but we’ll watch patterns, and a double-top before considering shorts. Dollar could still go lower and gold still has a long way to go to get to 1160-1170 and crude may hold up another day before we can consider shorts.Continue reading
Hogs still have time and room to go higher
FOR THURSDAY: (1/26) Often difficult to see grains higher on a Thursday but a larger cycle into Sunday night/early Monday my allow them to stay up. Cattle are waiting for the COF report and should be sluggish. Hogs still have time and room to go higher.Continue reading
S&P patterns suggest two new highs to 2330 into early February
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/25) The Infrastructure Bill that Democrats are dangling in front of Trump has everyone thinking raw materials and industry will benefit. Still a long way away before that passes. In the end, it’s a step in the right direction instead of spending money on useless wars to overthrow regimes and advance the military industrial complex. Stocks staged a minor breakout but not the dollar, and other markets were a bit muddled. Getting 1 week away from FOMC but not sure it matters much this time.Continue reading
Grains may complete retracements overnight and recover
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/25) Grains may complete retracements overnight and recover . Still, the market is a bit heavy and if there is a 5th wave up, we should use it to get short. We had grains completion cycles upward by Sunday and if we make a double-top or divergent high on corn, we would sell. Beans are more problematic without 1107 or 1120 coming in and wheat is struggling like always. Cold storage report was friendly for pork and we need to be long. Cattle should recover on Wednesday but then be sideways into the report on Friday.Continue reading
Grains look higher on Wednesday
FOR TUESDAY: (1/24) Markets are relatively quiet. Meats are looking out to USDA report later in the week. Grains are rather sluggish with the trade wondering if Trump will hurt relationships with China and hurt grain exports. Grains look higher on Wednesday and if there’s no bloodbath on Tuesday, we may still be open to buying but are going to be patient. Same for meats.Continue reading
Looking to sell gold on rallies
FOR MONDAY: (1/23) We expect lower action with stocks on Monday from potential unrest from DC and weak cycles. We want to sell gold on rallies and stay short on oil. Dollar is still in transition but should resolve back to upside eventually.Continue reading
Meats look lower on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (1/23) Markets look higher Monday and we’ll have to see how weather shifts over the weekend and maybe we will be able to play beans even though they are a bit vulnerable but probably not done. Still open to 372 on March corn at 450 on March wheat before hedges happen. Meats look lower on Monday if you’re into selling and can find a good risk/reward.Continue reading
Cycles not that bearish on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (1/20) Our sense is that Trump will get inaugurated and that if there‘s violence it will be more likely on Saturday during the marches. Still, protest is not new to inaugurations and we have seen it with Bush and a few others. Cycles are not that bearish on Friday but we’re open to the market falling into Sunday/Monday as it continues to be congestively toppy and needs a larger 4th-wave fall. We would be surprised to get more then 2237 but it’s not impossible. Probably have to scale into other markets. There’s always some major event to wait for next but the technical patterns are telling us to get long dollars, and that a retracement on gold is needed, and that the S & P needs a new high to at least 2300. All of these moves could happen over the next few weeks.Continue reading
Looking to sell hogs if we get a chance
FOR FRIDAY: (1/20) We logically would expect end-of-week profit-taking after nice run-ups but market looks higher Monday and we’ll have to see how weather shifts over the weekend. Cycles for meats may turn a bit tired which usually means upward movement will be limited and usually it leads to profit-taking. Cattle may have a better chance to rally on Friday. Inclined to sell hogs if we get a chance.Continue reading
Trump inauguration should provide more excitement
FOR THURSDAY: (1/19) ECB is usually a big market mover so maybe the market will finally get jerked out of congestion. If not, the Trump inauguration should provide more excitement. Cycles are more jittery in general for the world over the next 2-3 weeks and any bad surprises anywhere are more likely to create a quick knee-jerk reaction. Trump’s dollar comments aren’t a deal killer but lower is coming.Continue reading