FOR TUESDAY: (1/31) Congestive chop in large ranges as we head to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and then Bank of Japan Fed. S & P should complete a bounce and come off a bit on Tuesday but skeptical of a new low. Everything else looks sideways.Continue reading
Cattle may fill their gaps and set up March Feeder hedges
FOR TUESDAY: (1/31) The weather play for South American grains is over now. Markets have issued clearer daily chart sell signals for grains but are oversold and we need a recovery into Thursday or early Friday to have better risk/reward for selling. Cattle may fill their gaps if we’re lucky and set up March Feeder hedges. Not sure the game is over for live cattle yet.Continue reading
S&P cycles look positive on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (1/30) Cycles look positive on Monday for additional upward action for stocks but the market may still be tiring before Wednesday’s FOMC. We have completed our outlook on the 1st quarter and year and it’s now available.Continue reading
Hogs should hold up until at least Wednesday
Cycles still suggest that grains should top out the first few days of the week and turn lower into Friday and probably early next week. Cattle on Feed report was negative and there probably is a little room for it to fall yet but could be a “cattle on fade” situation, as we think they will buy dips for the rest of the week. Hogs should hold up until at least Wednesday.Continue reading
Not expecting any major reversals on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (1/27) Cycles look more volatile with profit-taking setting in for Friday overall but not expecting any major reversals or seeing any reason to change our long stock/short gold/long dollar orientation. Lots of reports but not sure they’ll tell us much as what do old reports mean when you have all this Trump hope.Continue reading
Cycles early next week suggest recoveries for grains
FOR FRIDAY: (1/27) A number of cycles early next week suggest recoveries for grains and livestock so we’re reluctant to press shorts. Cattle may have a big fall on Friday and then that will set up a buy for next week. Hogs look like they topped but have a recovery next week. Without a secondary high for grains, there’s nothing to sell. Not likely to do much on Friday but we do have a lot of set-ups by Monday for next week.Continue reading
Breakout move on stocks should not be top-picked
FOR THURSDAY: (1/26) Breakout move on stocks should not be top-picked. Should run out of steam by Friday or Monday and then congest before another push up. Cycles are still supportive into the week of Feb. 6 but we’ll watch patterns, and a double-top before considering shorts. Dollar could still go lower and gold still has a long way to go to get to 1160-1170 and crude may hold up another day before we can consider shorts.Continue reading
Hogs still have time and room to go higher
FOR THURSDAY: (1/26) Often difficult to see grains higher on a Thursday but a larger cycle into Sunday night/early Monday my allow them to stay up. Cattle are waiting for the COF report and should be sluggish. Hogs still have time and room to go higher.Continue reading
S&P patterns suggest two new highs to 2330 into early February
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/25) The Infrastructure Bill that Democrats are dangling in front of Trump has everyone thinking raw materials and industry will benefit. Still a long way away before that passes. In the end, it’s a step in the right direction instead of spending money on useless wars to overthrow regimes and advance the military industrial complex. Stocks staged a minor breakout but not the dollar, and other markets were a bit muddled. Getting 1 week away from FOMC but not sure it matters much this time.Continue reading
Grains may complete retracements overnight and recover
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/25) Grains may complete retracements overnight and recover . Still, the market is a bit heavy and if there is a 5th wave up, we should use it to get short. We had grains completion cycles upward by Sunday and if we make a double-top or divergent high on corn, we would sell. Beans are more problematic without 1107 or 1120 coming in and wheat is struggling like always. Cold storage report was friendly for pork and we need to be long. Cattle should recover on Wednesday but then be sideways into the report on Friday.Continue reading