FOR THURSDAY: (1/19) Usually grains are lower on Thursday but there’s one cycle that might hold the market open all day. We sense that the grains may come off over the weekend. Running out of time for hogs and cattle, and they are getting heavy but still should hold up another day.Continue reading
Trump’s dollar comments aren’t a deal killer
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/18) Lots of Yellen and Fed Gov. talks this week and they shouldn’t mean much but the chance of a March rate hike will probably push notes lower very soon. Draghi speaks at Davos but not much there either. Trump will get inaugurated and the issue will be how bad will the rioting be? Cycles are more jittery in general for the world over the next 2-3 weeks and any bad surprises anywhere are more likely to create a quick knee-jerk reaction. Trump’s dollar comments aren’t a deal killer but lower is coming.Continue reading
Open to being long cattle 1-2 more days
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/18) If we get a 1-day pullback on grains, they’re probably a buy and we’re open to being long cattle 1-2 more days and for buying hogs. Is SA weather a game changer? May be and will hold the market up into the end of the month.Continue reading
Running out of time for new highs for stocks
FOR FRIDAY: (1/13) Banking stocks earnings will be a focus. Cycles look weak and we’re very open to selling stocks on Friday and holding into Sunday. Will the trade be selling before inauguration waiting on riots in DC? Running out of time for new highs for stocks. Dollar close to key 3-wave pullback at 100.44 and gold almost done at 1225-30.Continue reading
Profit-taking setting in for beans and wheat
FOR FRIDAY: (1/13) Seeing profit-taking setting in for beans and wheat on Friday and probably a sale early Friday and a 2-3 day hold. Cattle should be a buy for 2-3 days but we don’t like to deal with long weekends and winter weather changes. Markets are closed Martin Luther King day and reopen on Monday night. Continue reading
Favoring higher stocks, topping T-notes, lower gold
FOR THURSDAY: (1/12) Not totally following the logic of the dollar on Wednesday and cycles are volatile still for the greenback on Thursday. We have a bias toward higher stocks, topping T-notes and lower gold and higher crude but volatility is a bit crazy and not likely to let up.Continue reading
Expecting a positive reaction to the crop report
FOR THURSDAY: (1/12) Congestive grain action likely before USDA report on Thursday. We have a bias toward a positive reaction to the report for Thursday/Friday, and corn isn’t falling as farmers aren’t selling and export demand is strong. Cycles remain volatile to lower for cattle and hogs on Thursday. Wheat looks like it issued a technical sale and weather is wetter and that may do it in but we have to be patient.Continue reading
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/11) Trump press conference may create new optimism based on some of the cycles running and seems safer to buy dips on the stock market overnight and on Wednesday. Gold needs a 3-day pullback and the dollar looks higher a few days and T-notes also. Oil has a transition day on Wednesday and then is a buy for 2-3 days.Continue reading
Congestive grain action likely before USDA report
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/11) Congestive grain action likely before the USDA report on Thursday. We have a bias toward a positive reaction to the report for Thursday/Friday and corn isn’t falling as farmers aren’t selling and export demand is strong. Cattle look higher on Wednesday and may get very violent by Thursday as they are going up parabolicly. Freezing temperatures in the 20’s is spooking ranchers in the South.Continue reading
Correction for stocks on Tuesday?
FOR TUESDAY: (1/10) Failure to continue higher for stocks was a minor yellow flag and lower crude into Wednesday and higher T-notes all suggest that we may see a correction on stocks on Tuesday. We’re going to exit longs but if the market holds up well on Tuesday, we will buy them back as stocks seem higher Wednesday and Thursday. Many markets seem a bit of a congestive muddle this week so we’ll have to see what’s developing after congestion works itself off this week.Continue reading