FOR TUESDAY: (1/10) Grains look like they will be in trouble into Wednesday. Cattle may retrace a day but they held well and seasonals and weather look supportive. Hogs may tag along and we won’t push shorts anymore until maybe Thursday if rallies are sickly the next few days. USDA report on Thursday may create more congestive ranges. We favor upward movement for a few days after the report.Continue reading
Gold and silver looking weaker this week
FOR MONDAY: (1/9) It doesn’t seem like the employment report meant a whole lot or was a deal killer and if anything, we’re getting disappointing numbers for a Christmas employment month. Reports of disappointing sales by Kohls and Macys and closing down of 150 K-Mart/Sears stores is a reminder that this recovery is all smoke and mirrors. Still, hope cycles for stocks may keep it pushing up into Thursday and that may allow a dollar recovery. Larger patterns aren’t definitively done enough for us give up on Euro 107.00 cash this week. Gold and silver are also looking weaker this week.Continue reading
Grains in trouble into Wednesday
FOR MONDAY: (1/9) Grains look like they will be in trouble into Wednesday with a bounce Monday possibly having the best chance of happening if we get some friendly news over the weekend. Cattle look better next week and hogs may be oversold and we’re moving stops down and will take profits and probably resell a 2-day bounce.Continue reading
Lower stocks, crude and dollars into Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (1/6) Friday’s employment report may not have much impact but China overnight may mean a lot more. The January employment report is often robust with Christmas hiring and that should allow a recovery for the dollar and could lead to a breakout on stocks. Our work had suggested lower stocks and crude and dollars into Friday and then recoveries next week. Next week seems complicated and we sense that some new wild news will have an impact but we aren’t totally clear on it yet.Continue reading
Big energy point over the weekend for cattle
FOR FRIDAY: (1/6) Cycles are wild the next few sessions. Weather shouldn’t be too much more of an issue and rallies this week on grains should be given back for 3 days next week. Still puzzled by cattle this week but big energy point over the weekend should lead to a reversal next week. We need to complete work on cycles then.Continue reading
Still favoring lower gold into Friday
FOR THURSDAY: (1/5) Stocks remain bid and if 2270 comes out on the S & P, then 2295 won’t be far behind. The dollar trend lower seems clear into Friday and even part of next week and the higher T-note trends also seem clear. Crude got a bullish API but products outweighed with a bad one so will see what they pay attention to. Still favoring lower gold into Friday.Continue reading
Still want to sell hogs
FOR THURSDAY: (1/5) We managed to get short corn and exit wheat and reverse but our play with beans didn’t work. The trade seemed one day behind in seeing what we saw Monday night with beans but happy they have a chance to go lower. We still want to sell hogs on the technical breakdown on Tuesday, and cattle should hold up on weather for a few more days.
Near term weather forecasts for South America are mixed, too dry in some areas, too wet in others. The South American crop is roughly at the early July stage of development. Early harvest activity in Brazil could start by mid-month, so increased competition for export market share is on the horizon. Soybean meal and oil followed beans higher. Weekly export sales are delayed until Friday.Continue reading
Lower stocks into Jan. 12
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/4) Typical New Years fake-out day where obviously buying is met by wild selling. It confirms our more bearish forecast for stocks with lower stocks into Jan. 12 and a retracement on the dollar to at least 101.48. We should get wild congestive patterns that will make it unclear to trade and not obvious but we have to assume that the fade is on. Healthy for it to happen after the run-up. Often we get a lot of crazy congestion before employment report, and the first week of the year is crazier than usual so may be hard to position trade anything unless you have perfect entries.Continue reading
Hogs may bounce for a day
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/4) The dollar reversed to the downside today sharply but crude did also so another mixed bag day. Grains cycles are often lower the first week of the year and patterns and cycles suggest weakness. Cattle should recover but are a bit overdone and a minor pullback is healthy so far. Hogs may bounce for a day to set up a sale on Thursday.Continue reading
Meats look firm this week on cold weather
FOR TUESDAY: (1/3) First of the year trading for grains is often crazy. Weather gaps up are possible and chances are they will be sold for the rest of the week and that is our strategy. Meats look firm this week on cold weather but it’s relative and not as bad as early January can be. Off to the races. Wishing you a successful trading year!Continue reading