FOR FRIDAY: (1/13) Seeing profit-taking setting in for beans and wheat on Friday and probably a sale early Friday and a 2-3 day hold. Cattle should be a buy for 2-3 days but we don’t like to deal with long weekends and winter weather changes. Markets are closed Martin Luther King day and reopen on Monday night. Continue reading
Favoring higher stocks, topping T-notes, lower gold
FOR THURSDAY: (1/12) Not totally following the logic of the dollar on Wednesday and cycles are volatile still for the greenback on Thursday. We have a bias toward higher stocks, topping T-notes and lower gold and higher crude but volatility is a bit crazy and not likely to let up.Continue reading
Expecting a positive reaction to the crop report
FOR THURSDAY: (1/12) Congestive grain action likely before USDA report on Thursday. We have a bias toward a positive reaction to the report for Thursday/Friday, and corn isn’t falling as farmers aren’t selling and export demand is strong. Cycles remain volatile to lower for cattle and hogs on Thursday. Wheat looks like it issued a technical sale and weather is wetter and that may do it in but we have to be patient.Continue reading
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/11) Trump press conference may create new optimism based on some of the cycles running and seems safer to buy dips on the stock market overnight and on Wednesday. Gold needs a 3-day pullback and the dollar looks higher a few days and T-notes also. Oil has a transition day on Wednesday and then is a buy for 2-3 days.Continue reading
Congestive grain action likely before USDA report
FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/11) Congestive grain action likely before the USDA report on Thursday. We have a bias toward a positive reaction to the report for Thursday/Friday and corn isn’t falling as farmers aren’t selling and export demand is strong. Cattle look higher on Wednesday and may get very violent by Thursday as they are going up parabolicly. Freezing temperatures in the 20’s is spooking ranchers in the South.Continue reading
Correction for stocks on Tuesday?
FOR TUESDAY: (1/10) Failure to continue higher for stocks was a minor yellow flag and lower crude into Wednesday and higher T-notes all suggest that we may see a correction on stocks on Tuesday. We’re going to exit longs but if the market holds up well on Tuesday, we will buy them back as stocks seem higher Wednesday and Thursday. Many markets seem a bit of a congestive muddle this week so we’ll have to see what’s developing after congestion works itself off this week.Continue reading
Don’t want to push Hog shorts
FOR TUESDAY: (1/10) Grains look like they will be in trouble into Wednesday. Cattle may retrace a day but they held well and seasonals and weather look supportive. Hogs may tag along and we won’t push shorts anymore until maybe Thursday if rallies are sickly the next few days. USDA report on Thursday may create more congestive ranges. We favor upward movement for a few days after the report.Continue reading
Gold and silver looking weaker this week
FOR MONDAY: (1/9) It doesn’t seem like the employment report meant a whole lot or was a deal killer and if anything, we’re getting disappointing numbers for a Christmas employment month. Reports of disappointing sales by Kohls and Macys and closing down of 150 K-Mart/Sears stores is a reminder that this recovery is all smoke and mirrors. Still, hope cycles for stocks may keep it pushing up into Thursday and that may allow a dollar recovery. Larger patterns aren’t definitively done enough for us give up on Euro 107.00 cash this week. Gold and silver are also looking weaker this week.Continue reading
Grains in trouble into Wednesday
FOR MONDAY: (1/9) Grains look like they will be in trouble into Wednesday with a bounce Monday possibly having the best chance of happening if we get some friendly news over the weekend. Cattle look better next week and hogs may be oversold and we’re moving stops down and will take profits and probably resell a 2-day bounce.Continue reading
Lower stocks, crude and dollars into Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (1/6) Friday’s employment report may not have much impact but China overnight may mean a lot more. The January employment report is often robust with Christmas hiring and that should allow a recovery for the dollar and could lead to a breakout on stocks. Our work had suggested lower stocks and crude and dollars into Friday and then recoveries next week. Next week seems complicated and we sense that some new wild news will have an impact but we aren’t totally clear on it yet.Continue reading