Big energy point over the weekend for cattle

FOR FRIDAY: (1/6) Cycles are wild the next few sessions. Weather shouldn’t be too much more of an issue and rallies this week on grains should be given back for 3 days next week. Still puzzled by cattle this week but big energy point over the weekend should lead to a reversal next week. We need to complete work on cycles then.Continue reading

Still favoring lower gold into Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (1/5) Stocks remain bid and if 2270 comes out on the S & P, then 2295 won’t be far behind. The dollar trend lower seems clear into Friday and even part of next week and the higher T-note trends also seem clear. Crude got a bullish API but products outweighed with a bad one so will see what they pay attention to. Still favoring lower gold into Friday.Continue reading

Still want to sell hogs

FOR THURSDAY: (1/5) We managed to get short corn and exit wheat and reverse but our play with beans didn’t work. The trade seemed one day behind in seeing what we saw Monday night with beans but happy they have a chance to go lower. We still want to sell hogs on the technical breakdown on Tuesday, and cattle should hold up on weather for a few more days.

Near term weather forecasts for South America are mixed, too dry in some areas, too wet in others. The South American crop is roughly at the early July stage of development. Early harvest activity in Brazil could start by mid-month, so increased competition for export market share is on the horizon. Soybean meal and oil followed beans higher. Weekly export sales are delayed until Friday.Continue reading

Lower stocks into Jan. 12

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/4) Typical New Years fake-out day where obviously buying is met by wild selling. It confirms our more bearish forecast for stocks with lower stocks into Jan. 12 and a retracement on the dollar to at least 101.48. We should get wild congestive patterns that will make it unclear to trade and not obvious but we have to assume that the fade is on. Healthy for it to happen after the run-up. Often we get a lot of crazy congestion before employment report, and the first week of the year is crazier than usual so may be hard to position trade anything unless you have perfect entries.Continue reading

Hogs may bounce for a day

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/4) The dollar reversed to the downside today sharply but crude did also so another mixed bag day. Grains cycles are often lower the first week of the year and patterns and cycles suggest weakness. Cattle should recover but are a bit overdone and a minor pullback is healthy so far. Hogs may bounce for a day to set up a sale on Thursday.Continue reading

Meats look firm this week on cold weather

FOR TUESDAY: (1/3) First of the year trading for grains is often crazy. Weather gaps up are possible and chances are they will be sold for the rest of the week and that is our strategy. Meats look firm this week on cold weather but it’s relative and not as bad as early January can be. Off to the races. Wishing you a successful trading year!Continue reading

Favoring long stocks, dollar next week

FOR FRIDAY: (12/30) Not expecting much going into a quiet holiday weekend. If there are no violent shocks over the weekend, we do want to be long and stocks and the dollar next week and they should be oversold enough for better risk/rewards. Crude looks lower next week and gold and silver are topping on Friday and lower into next week.Continue reading

Lower grains next week

FOR FRIDAY: (12/30) Final day of the year may have funds doing position squaring and hopefully cattle are lower because they have been higher all week and not pulling back. We do see lower grains next week and will exit longs and look to get short on Monday night or Tuesday if we can get a decent risk/reward.Continue reading

Higher grains into Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (12/29) Thin market conditions are not making for fun trade and we might normally just sit back but there were some clear patterns and cycles, and we still think that is the case. We will go with higher grains into Friday and then lower next week and still looking for pullbacks on cattle the next few days and rallies on hogs.Continue reading