Gold–A Safe Haven?
Given the current environment in the world, gold should come to life. Seasonally it often does better the middle of August and we are just waiting for the next crisis to hit and there are a number of cycles the week of August 11-19th for something to happen–whether Iran or something else.
Gold got to 2420 overnight on August 8th and held above the key 2411 area. It still is acting like “failure to launch” . If 2398 comes out there is a small chance for 2371. Gold is not in big trouble unless 2360 comes out for a major breakdown. Originally we had a cycle low here and gold is one of the safer things to be in at the moment and it is more oversold.
We generally see higher the next few weeks and expect to see 2640-55. If the market takes out 2350, we will have to revise the count. The market looks higher for a recovery into August 19th-22nd. It’s very possible that if gold can spurt in August that we will not worry about the new low into October.
OVERALL : If we get an x-factor crisis in August, there are still patterns that would allow 2660. Until we see the August high, it will be too much to estimate the Oct low.
GLD, the ETF could pop to 235 or 247. GDX has been underperforming and we worry about miners if the stock market lays another egg next week. Silver has been underperforming but has put in a number of positive divergence.
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