We got our hawish PPI print and we can throw a June cut out the window and that has been obvious since oil took out 80.00 a barrel. We are still waiting to see if key S & P prints 5090 on cash and 17830 on NQ futures can develop and start to break the camel’s back and project 5 waves down into April 19th. The 60 minute MACD is very oversold and a bounce into Friday is possible if PPI turns things around. The international index, IWM is starting to confirm what we have been telling you and while 5300 on S & P cash is not destroyed, the chances are down to about 30% for us and we have suggested raising cash and exiting.
We have the dollar higher into April 20th and does that mean that metals will take a bit longer to put in a 4th wave and go deeper. We worry if we get out, we will not get back in but there is reason to take some partial profits and then buy again on dips keeping the bigger picture in mind. We have targeted 2290 as a 4th wave pullback for June gold.
We continue to watch TLT for a move to 8925 but its hard to trust the bond market with our oil outlook.
So continue to raise cash. We has suggested some SDS for short protection and hedging and if you keep the big picture in mind for an August slow for stocks, you will do well.
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