AUGUST AND DEC. GOLD.
BOTTOM LINE: The party is over this month as gold tends to fall into contract rollover. For now, the most likely target for the next swing low is 3200 basis August , but a reaction off of there in August back to 3400 is very possible. Dec is trading 57 higherl
(7’/30. We have to prepare for the December contract, which is $ 57 above August, but we will quote August for the last day today.Gold is down hard already and hit 3284. We are still focusing on at least 3250 this week, and the market will stay bearish unless 3450 comes out. There is a chance that a crisis could lead to a 200 rally from 3250-3450 the week of August 4th, but some kind of move up will happen then, and we may need to have some GLD on from the 3200-3250 area equivalents.
THE BULLISH TRIANGLE PATTERN_– FAVORED The more bearish and realistic pattern suggests count holding 3200 this week and recovering into early August, toward 3410, and then probably holding above 3220 in a congestive triangle pattern into mid-August.
We ran cycles for the weeks of August 1-11, and they are higher, so we should get a strong bounce and reaction off the lows coming this week.
CYCLE REVIEW: Cycles look lower into July 31st; higher into August 7th.
It’s hard to imagine a major liquidation down to 3100, which is what the bearish pattern suggests. The more realistic pullback target is max. 3200 for a low next week. We are still open to higher prices in early August, but they may only return to $3,400.
LARGER PICTURE: We cannot rule out a summer high of 4,000. While the current move is starting to project 4508 and 4909, as indicated by the monthly chart, we are not yet clear when that will materialize. However, we have noted cycle highs into November of this year and into May 2026.
OVERALL: The next major cycle high is expected in November 2025.
CYCLE and PATTERN SYNTHESIS: lower into July 30th and 31st: bottoming on August 1st and generally higher into August 10-11th;
GLD: We are more concerned about a fall to 301 next. We have lightened up and will be patient about buying again, and should have something for the August 1-11th rally in case we get a massive increase in geopolitical tensions.
INVESTORS: The most bullish patterns for position traders indicate a target of 357.90 later in the year.
SEPT. MICRO SILVER
BOTTOM LINE: The first five-wave down should hit 3680-3700 in the next few days and then have a reaction higher next week. Some patterns would allow a new high to 4250 max. from this week’s pullback, so there may be reason to be long for a week in case that develops.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (7/30) In the more bearish pattern, silver would hold 3680-3700 and do a 62% retracement through August 11th and then do another push down to 3550 the following week. There is enough of a chance for a new high to 4250 that there will be reason to be long for a week.
Weakness is expected to persist into the end of the month, but a recovery the following week seems likely.
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