THAT ELUSIVE STOCK MARKET TOP
While Dow Transports and Industrials gave early topping signals and Russell has been struggling, NQ and the S & P have not give it up yet.
We are still friendly stocks for about a week until S & P cash hits 5400 and not in trouble unless S & P cash takes out 5250 now. NASDAQ 100 June futures went and held key support at 18240 on Friday. The S & P only managed a 3-wave fall although it did hit 5193—a bit deeper than we had liked. The astonishing close last Friday kind of thing funds love to see and so often 1st of the month buying comes in.
Cycles look positive the week of June 3rd and into the FOMC. We had alerted you for secondary highs into the FOMC and they are starting to manifest. We are clear about a fall from June 12th into June 20th and then will evaluate the pattern. Because the market only fell in 3 waves and NQ fell to the minimum support area, new highs on NQ to 19200-19300 are very likely. We cannot rule new highs on S & P cash to 5400 or a bit higher.
Cycles seem more clearly lower after FOMC June 13-20th and into June 28th. Hence we can see the market doing a secondary high into FOMC. When the market does top, the first place it will go is 5150, and then 4850 and 4650 into the summer.
OTHER MARKETS: Bitcoin looks good and we waited too long but once 76800 comes in it is overbought and hard to chase and not that much room but some still.
T-notes are close to issuing a buy signal and we have to watch TLT but would have to wait for 9100-9050.
Energy is still in trouble this month and crude futures have key support at 7090 but may not be done until the market gets to 6700 or even lower. We have time windows in our newsletter.
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