Today is shaping up to be the most bearish session of the week for the stock market —barring an unexpected upside surprise from NVDA earnings for Wednesday , which remains a major sentiment driver for the broader tech complex. A negative shock, on the other hand, could weigh heavily on global risk assets. 

Last week, we highlighted that the next meaningful cycle low is likely to emerge in the first week of December. Our broader outlook still anticipates a rally extending into January, but with recent softness across equities, the question now is whether that January move becomes a secondary high rather than a decisive breakout. 

A few weak sessions are not enough to invalidate the larger trend structure, but price action does suggest rising odds that S&P 500 cash 6244 could come into play. For now, the 6550 level on cash remains a critical area of support, and the market’s response there will likely set the tone for December positioning. 

We are not changing our core forecast at this time. It will take additional market confirmation before we adjust downside targets for either the S&P or NQ. By Friday, the structure should be clearer as volume firms and traders react to key levels. 

Metals: No change in outlook for gold and silver—our timing work continues to favor buying opportunities in the first few weeks of December. 

Energy: Crude oil still appears vulnerable to another breakdown; patience remains warranted before attempting long exposure. 

Crypto: Bitcoin continues to set up constructively, but correlations with NQ remain a concern. A sharp equity sell-off could open the door to significantly better value—possibly even toward 80,000, should the 92,000 threshold give way. This week had been the earliest window for a potential buy, but volatility may offer a deeper entry.

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