Stocks Ready for a Pause

Fortucast Commodity Timers Feature Banner

Stocks should pause after today and pull back into Monday, but then continue higher. We are
not expecting anything dramatic to the downside, but it could be a sell on the fact that the
the government is reopening or some stalling and bickering that delays it. We are at a point where buyers can wait until Monday for better levels.Crude oil still could recover today’s losses by Monday, but it may not mean much in the big
scheme of things.

Bitcoin still has more to do by next week, but it is setting up, so keep an eye on it for a
significant buy opportunity next week.

Stay in touch with these rapidly moving markets with our daily and twice daily updates. Subscribe to the Fortucast Financial Timer or Fortucast ETF timer for 29.95 — two week special.

When will the BTC carnage end?

NOV. BITCOIN FUTURES (CBOE)

(11/5). The bounce off 99331 is sickly and may stall at 105200. Thursdays are often
lower, so we remain open to 92499 next. The market remains in trouble through the week of
November 17th, so assume the bears will stay in control, even though we occasionally
get some absurd blips.

WEEKLY CLART SELL SIGNAL: : We received major confirmation with a
print of 112,000 weeks ago that the market had topped which allowed us to project a first fall to 92000 and max. to 80,000 into the November low. There are more bearish patterns indicating a deeper fall, but the fundamentals do not support this.

OVERALL: We remain bearish until November 17-21.

Sideways Trading Pre-FOMC, Rising Downside Risks, and Gold Rally Forecast

Market Summary 10/22:
One week before the FOMC, expect sideways market action. Some stocks and sectors are holding up, but the risk of a decline next week is rising. Bonds and notes may react positively to the FOMC but could peak and sell off. Energy is recovering from oversold conditions, but no buy signal exists yet, and November seasonals are weak.

Gold 10/22 Year-End Outlook:
By mid-December, cycles suggest a gold rally. A three-wave pullback or volatile congestion triangle is possible. A secondary high is likely this week. Gold typically rises from Dec. 15 to Jan. 15, with messier geopolitical cycles into the new year.

Stay ahead of volatile markets with a two-week trial of Fortucast Financials. https://commoditytimers.com/2-week-trial-offer/

How Much More Upside for Gold?

MORNING GOLD 10/15
Gold at new highs projects 4253 next, with an extended target of 4323. The market must surpass 4157 to appear toppy. Avoid capping this market; there’s still time for gains. This market offers few easy entry points. Rally potential persists until Oct. 23-24, but caution is advised once the minimum target is hit. Silver has stronger fundamentals and more potential.

MORNING SILVER 10/15
Silver hasn’t broken 5250 yet, but highs of 5395, 5420, or 5500 are possible next week. Don’t cap it. Playing this market requires courage, even with expected new highs. A recovery is likely by Oct. 22-25. If new highs occur into November, daily charts suggest targets of 5295 or 5500.

Is the stock market bounce for real?

October 13th Market Summary

Bargain hunters are stepping in, but we’ll wait for an overbought market into Friday/Sunday before trimming longs and eyeing the bigger correction into October or early November.

NQ flashed the clearest sell signal, yet in these wild ending Elliott wave diagonal patterns, expect crazy pullbacks and potential new highs. Gold and silver have another two weeks of upside—targeting 5395 for silver and 4200+ for gold, which look achievable now. Recent pullbacks have been shallow after big spurts like today’s.

Still not bullish on Bitcoin; waiting to load up at the November low. It may recover alongside NQ. Traders are buzzing this week, but the broader investment play should extend at least to October 31st, possibly longer for stocks.

Test Us Out: https://commoditytimers.com/2-week-trial-offer/

DEC. S & P FUTURES AND CASH

Enjoy our new user-friendly format for S&P Analysis!

MORNING COMMENTS:

Cash hit 6634 overnight, and let’s see if that leads to acceleration at 6657 on cash which could happen before FOMC on Wednesday or the minimum is done. . . NQ Dec. futures hit the 24630 area that we mentioned last night, and are starting a correction.

DEC FUTURES NEW THOUGHTS:

Futures are positive for an extended 5^th wave to 6719 max. If 6510 holds. That could be a pre or post reaction to FOMC but does not have to happen. Pullback to 6598 , OR 6573, or 6538, possible as 4^th wave. The extended diagonal target is likely now at 6719 and is not favoring the upper resistance at 6750. Not clear how this fits into our timing models. Will the 4^th wave come after the FOMC announcement? That would make sense based on cycles.

Bottom line: We usually avoid fighting the long side on a Tuesday, but NQ is stretched out quite a bit, and I wonder if the market will become congested while waiting for the news on Wednesday. Again. We may only get a 250-point reaction to the downside over the next week on the S & P

Market Recap

· Cash Index (Monday Close): 6,615

· December Futures Settlement: 6,674.25

· Cash/Futures Spread: ~59.25

Key Observations

· Correction Risk:
Current technical and cyclical indicators do not suggest a significant correction. Until cash breaks 6,212, deeper downside projections remain speculative. Despite geopolitical stressors (Nepal, France, Japan, and the assassination of Charlie Kirk), the market has largely shrugged off risk events.

· Resistance Levels:

o Cash: Key resistance at A breakout above 6,625 could extend toward 6,653, with an upper stretch target at 6,692–6,700.

o December Futures: Breakout above 6,680 targets 6,719. Extreme upside not expected beyond 6,800 in the near term.

· Support Levels:

o Futures: Initial weakness if 6,519 breaks, followed by 6,500, 6,473, and 6,425.

o Cash: Minor breakdown starts at 6,545; stronger confirmation at 6,360. Only a break below 6,212 would open the door to a potential move toward 5,600.

Short-Term Timing & Cycles

· Best Window for Pullback: September 17–24.

· NASDAQ Cycle: Remains friendly into October 2, suggesting relative resilience.

· FOMC Considerations:

o The session on Sept. 17 could trigger volatility if the expected 50 bps rate cut is not delivered. Even if delivered, the risk of a “sell the fact” response remains.

o Historical tendency: markets trade higher on the Tuesday before a rate cut.

Seasonal and Geocosmic Factors

· Late September/Early October: Historically softer period, with risk of a 400-point pullback (e.g., from 6,700 toward 6,285, probably the max).

· Seasonal Recovery: Strength often returns into late October; cycles show potential for renewed buying Sept. 29–Oct. 3.

· October Weakness: Expect pressure into the week of Oct 5-Oct. 11, before typical year-end seasonal strength resumes.

· Geopolitical Overlay: Ongoing risks from Ukraine, Europe’s financial fragility, and U.S.–China tensions could serve as catalysts for downside shocks.

Strategic Outlook

· Upside Targets (Fall/Winter): Extended cash projection to 7,144, with bullish cycles supportive into January 2026.

· Downside Scenarios: A corrective move to 6,375 is most probable; a deeper slide to 5,800–5,600 would require a severe geopolitical or financial shock.

· Trading Strategy:

o Use rebounds to trim positions or take partial profits, especially on late entries.

o Avoid aggressive top-picking; cycles suggest higher levels remain possible.

o Maintain awareness of Fed timing (Sept. 17–18) and seasonal patterns.

Cycle Snapshot

· Sept. 17–18 (FOMC): Volatility risk; likely downside reaction

· Sept. 19–24: Pullback window

· Sept. 29–Oct. 3: Recovery phase

· Oct. 6: Higher

· Oct. 11: Seasonal weakness

Bottom Line

The S&P remains in a ranging bull market with resilient upside momentum. Near term, watch Sept. 17–24 for a corrective phase. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain a wild card. Central cycle highs point toward January 2026, with 7,144 as a longer-term extended target.

Stay up to date with twice a day and some intraday updates on this exciting market!!

World Tension Cycles and the Stock Market in September

War cycles are tense in September. Israel is bombing Yemen again. Venezuela has called up 4.5 million soldiers, and US ships are moving that way. Maduro has been accused of being a Narco-politician, and there is a move to stop the drug trade coming out of there. Peace is already breaking down, and Europe continues to push toward war, so will Trump sanction Russia and create some Sept messes? Something is expected to upset the stock market in September, which is supportive for gold and unfavorable for cryptocurrencies. Currently, it also appears that Europe and the IMF are considering bailouts and further dissolution of the French government. Will Macron use the crisis to take more power?

Get more details and stay in touch with our twice-daily thinking with Fortuast Newsletters. Our ETF newsletter has been expanded and is now covering hot sectors like Uranium, Rare Earth Metals, Solar Power, Biotechnology, Cryptos, Real Estate, Raw Materials, Agricultural, and more.
Stay on top of these volatile markets with Fortucast.
1 MONTH TRIAL–97.00.
WWW.FORTUCAST.COM

SWING LOW FOR METALS INTO LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY

AUGUST AND DEC. GOLD.

BOTTOM LINE: The party is over this month as gold tends to fall into contract rollover. For now, the most likely target for the next swing low is 3200 basis August , but a reaction off of there in August back to 3400 is very possible. Dec is trading 57 higherl

(7’/30. We have to prepare for the December contract, which is $ 57 above August, but we will quote August for the last day today.Gold is down hard already and hit 3284. We are still focusing on at least 3250 this week, and the market will stay bearish unless 3450 comes out. There is a chance that a crisis could lead to a 200 rally from 3250-3450 the week of August 4th, but some kind of move up will happen then, and we may need to have some GLD on from the 3200-3250 area equivalents.

THE BULLISH TRIANGLE PATTERN_– FAVORED The more bearish and realistic pattern suggests count holding 3200 this week and recovering into early August, toward 3410, and then probably holding above 3220 in a congestive triangle pattern into mid-August.

We ran cycles for the weeks of August 1-11, and they are higher, so we should get a strong bounce and reaction off the lows coming this week.

CYCLE REVIEW: Cycles look lower into July 31^st; higher into August 7^th.

It’s hard to imagine a major liquidation down to 3100, which is what the bearish pattern suggests. The more realistic pullback target is max. 3200 for a low next week. We are still open to higher prices in early August, but they may only return to $3,400.

LARGER PICTURE: We cannot rule out a summer high of 4,000. While the current move is starting to project 4508 and 4909, as indicated by the monthly chart, we are not yet clear when that will materialize. However, we have noted cycle highs into November of this year and into May 2026.

OVERALL: The next major cycle high is expected in November 2025.

CYCLE and PATTERN SYNTHESIS: lower into July 30^th and 31^st: bottoming on August 1^st and generally higher into August 10-11^th;

GLD: We are more concerned about a fall to 301 next. We have lightened up and will be patient about buying again, and should have something for the August 1-11th rally in case we get a massive increase in geopolitical tensions.

INVESTORS: The most bullish patterns for position traders indicate a target of 357.90 later in the year.

SEPT. MICRO SILVER

BOTTOM LINE: The first five-wave down should hit 3680-3700 in the next few days and then have a reaction higher next week. Some patterns would allow a new high to 4250 max. from this week’s pullback, so there may be reason to be long for a week in case that develops.

TODAY’S COMMENTS: (7/30) In the more bearish pattern, silver would hold 3680-3700 and do a 62% retracement through August 11^th and then do another push down to 3550 the following week. There is enough of a chance for a new high to 4250 that there will be reason to be long for a week.

Weakness is expected to persist into the end of the month, but a recovery the following week seems likely.

IS GOLD DONE AND WHEN SHOULD WE BUY AGAIN?

IS GOLD DONE AND WHEN SHOULD WE BUY AGAIN?

(4/25) Gold is down impulsively and is closer to minimum support at 3260-55. Lower
support is at 3233 and 3203. We may still see those levels but a B wave bounce to
3430 or 3450 would be a secondary high. That high could come in as late as the 1st
week of May. The minimum correction in the spring would go to 3083 but lower support
to 2905 or 2783 are possible. We do not have a date for a cycle low yet for the early
summer.

GDX looks like it issued a sell signal and only silver has been holding up ok and is
vulnerable.
The larger pattern to the upside this year projects higher prices into October after a
larger pullback to max. 2783- 2800 into the summer. That is a max. pullback but it will
depend on where gold stops. .
OVERALL: The next major cycle high is due Oct 2025 and the estimate cycle low is
due in July which is often a seasonal low.
Larger cycles look higher then into May 2025 and Sept 2025 and another one due
into Dec. 2026. .
CYCLE and PATTERN SYNTHESIS: higher on Sunday and lower into the 30th
.
LARGER CYCLES: . We are watching highs into Sept./October 2025. Longer-term
gold cycles peak into the years 2027-28 and the most exaggerated projection for gold
into that time window is something like 4918 . With a major top for stocks since the
depression low in 1932 into this year, gold may take off as a major asset if the
government does not ban it as it has in the past. .Still, it would take a while for that to
happen.

The dollar seems lower into the end of the year and that may continue to allow higher
numbers for gold after the summer pullback.

ETF GLD: GLD already fell to 300.72 and next major support is at 295 and 293. We may
get a secondary high into the first week of May. The MACD is higher than at the 2011
top. When it falls again, we are looking for 250 and 260 over the next few months but
there will be a secondary high in May.

TESLA READY FOR NEXT RUN UP

TESLA READY FOR NEXT PUSH HIGHER

Looking for a pullback to 303-305 to add and you could start at 310.50. Key resistance is at 373 and 404 and 414 short-term. Larger targets weeks and months out suggest 461 and 537. The market is fine as long as 250 holds. We may consider adding at 303-310 but wondering if it will take a few days to get there but this market moves fast. We had predicted the entry at 210 and at 240 in previous Financial and ETF Timers.

Stay on top of these questions by getting a 1 month trial of Fortucast Timers for 97.00/month.

https://www.fortucast.com/#products

OUR FREE BLOGS:
https://commoditytimers.com/blog/

Or :
Try our newsletter for one month for 97.00