Category: Blog

THAT ELUSIVE STOCK MARKET TOP 

While Dow Transports and Industrials gave early topping signals and Russell has been struggling, NQ and the S & P have not give it up yet.

We are still friendly stocks for about a week until S & P cash hits 5400 and not in trouble unless S & P cash takes out 5250 now. NASDAQ 100 June futures  went and held key support at 18240 on Friday. The S & P only managed a 3-wave fall although it did hit 5193—a bit deeper than we had liked. The astonishing close  last Friday  kind of thing funds love to see and so often 1st of the month buying comes in.

Cycles look positive the week of June 3rd and into the FOMC.  We had  alerted you for secondary highs into the FOMC and they are starting to manifest. We are clear about a fall from June 12th into June 20th and then will evaluate the pattern.  Because the market only fell in 3 waves and NQ fell to the minimum support area, new highs on NQ to 19200-19300 are very likely. We cannot rule new highs on S & P cash to 5400 or a bit higher.

Cycles seem more clearly lower after FOMC June 13-20th and into June 28th. Hence we can see the market doing a secondary high into FOMC. When the market does top, the first place it will go is 5150, and then 4850 and 4650 into the summer.

OTHER MARKETS:  Bitcoin looks good and we waited too long but once 76800 comes in it is overbought and hard to chase and not that much room but some still.

T-notes are close to issuing a buy signal and we have to watch TLT but would have to wait for 9100-9050.

Energy is still in trouble this month and crude futures have key support at  7090 but may not be done until the market gets to 6700 or even lower.  We have time windows in our newsletter.

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SIGNS OF TOPPING STOCKS

(5/30): DOW futures are still shedding and got down to 38140 overnight. S & P cash got to 5235 overnight which was closer to the minimum target of 5225-5220.  NQ held 18657 overnight on futures and is the only safe place that funds feel good about parking money—but for how much longer?  We rarely like being long the last day of May but there is a positive cycle on Friday and if the PCE is not inflationary, oversold conditions could spark a rally.

Futures held their breakdown area overnight at 5244 and still could reach up to 5370 as we move into the FOMC meeting.  Cash got closer to issuing a breakdown but not quite.

Patterns on cash look like a bounce to 5270 and then a new low to at least 5220 at least. That would go with our end of the month fall but cycles are mixed for surprises on Friday.

The broader market has confirmed a top but NQ and S & P cash have not.  NQ cycles are friendly on Thursday but the larger energies have a lot of unraveling energy operating.  NQ is still holding up but more cracks appearing S & P futures have to hold 5244 for 3 waves down or we will see 5225-5220 on futures  before a bounce.

The backdrop in Europe is a bit unnerving as they are starting to call for mandatory conscription and pushing the war with Russia there. We have to watch the International Stock market index IWM which made a new low on the move to issue a sell signal and got to 201 overnight and could retest 200.70 the next few days before hitting an oversold situation.

All the bearish indices are oversold and we have to get secondary highs or new highs into early June to set up a nice short.   DOW Transports are often a leading indicator for topping action and topped out a few weeks back and Dow Industrials issued a sell signal earlier this week.

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Stock Market Top Signal Confirmed–What’s Next?

We had discussed that a close under 5090 on the S & P would be a first topping signal for stocks and the 2nd one will come with a close below 4936 on S & P cash.  We do see a secondary high into April 22-28th but it is likely a secondary high

We do have a bias for a low into Friday but now the context is looking like at least a move to cash 4955 or extended to 4903. Key support for one more low today is at least to 502 or 5207 on cash.  We will get a retracement of the fall from 5265 on cash to Friday’s low  and there is a gap at 5200 but maybe that is where it goes into April 28^th.

We have been getting signals that something is wrong with the break of XLK, the eroding bond market and the strong dollar.  . We have several crisis cycles this month on the geopolitical front but they could take their time to manifest.  We have one into April 19/20 and then another into the first week of May.

We have warned you for weeks that if oil breaks out and projects 98 or 106 or higher that is not going to help the Fed’s easing stance and inflation will run away. We had a key inflation cycle high for May and it appears on schedule.  The CPI went up because of food, energy and housing costs.

Obviously it is time to raise cash and consider shorting and hedging strategies.  We have an August 2024 low and our daily timer have targets.  Stay on top of daily gyrations with the Fortucast Financial Timer or the Fortucast ETF Timer. Sign up for a 1 month trial at Fortucast.com for 97.00.

We got our hawish PPI print and we can throw a June cut out the window and that has been obvious since oil took out 80.00 a barrel.  We are still waiting to see if key S & P prints 5090 on cash and 17830 on NQ futures can develop  and start to break the camel’s back and project 5 waves down into April 19^th.   The 60 minute MACD is very oversold and a bounce into Friday is possible if PPI turns things around.   The international index, IWM is starting to confirm what we have been telling you and while 5300 on S & P cash is not destroyed, the chances are down to about 30% for us and we have suggested raising cash and exiting.

We have the dollar higher into April 20^th and does that mean that metals will take a bit longer to put in a 4^th wave and go deeper. We worry if we get out, we will not get back in but there is reason to take some partial profits and then buy again on dips keeping the bigger picture in mind.  We have targeted 2290 as a 4th wave pullback for June gold.

We continue to watch TLT for a move to 8925 but its hard to trust the bond market with our oil outlook.

So continue to raise cash.  We has suggested some SDS for short protection and hedging and if you keep the big picture in mind for an August slow for stocks, you will do well.

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LAST STOCK MARKET LIFT-OFF

(3/20)   The FOMC did not raise rates and the majority of FOMC members are looking for 3 rate cuts by Dec. although they dialed back 2025 and 2026 rate cuts.  The S & P cash has made a new high on the move and cycle highs dominate into the first week of April.  From Elliott wave patterns, if S & P cash 5350 came in, it would complete patterns from the 1932 low, the 2009 low and the 2020 low and that would mean a multiple year top.  Cycle lows dominate into at least August and patterns on the S & P suggest that the first place the market will fall will be to 3800.  For now there is still a little money to make on the upside if you pick stuff carefully but we are getting to the end of the game of Musical Chairs and a Black Swan event in April could unsettle the market.  Will it be France’s call to send in soldiers to Ukraine and pulling Europe in?  Will it be more bank failures?  Will it be some geocosmic event?  The sixty year cycle is hitting here for 2024-25 and it tends to bring more violence and earthquakes and other messes. In 1964, the false flag Gulf of Tonkin event initiated the Viet Nam war.  The messes in Haiti and the migrant crisis are enough to cause restless nights.  Stay on top of our daily updates with the Fortucast ETF or Financial Timers.  We are offering old clients a special 2 week look for 29.95.   We had correctly predicted a positive reaction for stocks today for the FOMC and we continue to look for higher gold and oil prices into the summer.

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Gold Still Looks Good

(3/18)   We tend to get so micro-orientated but the big picture is much higher gold over the next few years as the reality of the world banking and debt crises manifests in a bigger way.  Long-term investors can at least focus on the July high short-term this year.  All the gold contracts that we follow would look better a little lower. Gold looks higher at least over the next few weeks into March 29^th and chances are we have to scoop dips before FOMC on Wednesday.  We are closer to minimum support at 2146 and lower support is at 2128 and continues to accumulate on dips

Still, next week, It would not be shocking to see gold shoot up to 2222 either with silver strong.  One cannot be short gold and the question is do we keep buying the dips or be patient?

Gold does look higher from the  29^th.   From max. 2122-30 it would go to 2222 at least.   Watch GLD which should hold 199.10-198.20-197.40. 
 
Later in the month: new highs of 2269 would complete this pattern and then 2300.  This could take until the middle of April when cycles higher are due.   If the market extends to 2269 or 2300  then a pullback from there would go to 2172 into the late April low

ENERGY ISSUES A BREAKOUT SIGNAL

(3/14) The market took out the key 8030 region and we will see 8220 before a setback.  The market has to take out 7880 to issue a minor sell signal for 7600 and that is in doubt

Above 8000, we are favoring a move to 8400 next and pullbacks holding 7850 and eventually finishing in late March toward 8562.   It’s very real.

We ran cycles through early April and the market looks higher into the 20^th with a pullback into the 22^nd and then higher the week of the 25^th -29^th.  The first week of April looks lower.  We will assume that the market has a better chance of breaking out vs. taking out 7500 and continuing to invest in dips in energy vehicles. Longer-term patterns into the spring point toward 9000 and 102.00 and seasonal gas and jet fuel usage goes up.

Cycles and patterns could easily get the market back up to 8562 this month.

For ETF traders like USO up to the 7870 region before we get a setback but XLE does not have much room above 92.50 before we get a setback to 8905 or more.  Sign up for a two week trial to keep up with exciting markets. For a limited time only 29.95 at

WHAT’ NEXT FOR BITCOIN?

(2/14) Bitcoin is the best game in town with a 17% advance last week.  Computer models give a 74% chance for 53967 and we will stay open.  NQ should recover for a few days. Daily charts are projecting 59024 so we are going to have to chase at some point but not clear where or when.  We have seen an early March high

Oscillators did give a buy signal negating the chance for a C wave lower to 37700.

EVENTUALLY:   Daily charts project 59024.   Weekly charts point to the third wave going to 69781.   Pullbacks on the weekly suggest 45000 may be the best entry but not sure when.

Fund managers are projecting 200,000k Bitcoin on the news into next year but we have seen these wild assertions before.  Still, our larger cycles are friendly into 2026.  We have to think long-term and it seems like 37000  will hold on dips in the worst-case scenario and with SEC people cooperating a bit, maybe our worries about government regulation are too unfounded.

WEEKLY CHART: Some patterns suggest an upward explosion to 92200 could happen later in the year.  Larger cycles into 2026 support that.

GBTC –The ETF
GBTC:  (2/14)  Fifth wave target projects 5059 and then 54.72. If the market is very bullish, we may only get a pullback to 140 ticks from this upcoming high toward 46.00.
. …
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3RD WAVE  COMPLETION IN STOCKS A BIT CLOSER
Third waves are exhausting because they keep extending and its so hard to chase so high. . Our time window for a 3rd wave high is due within a few days into Feb. 12-13th and then we should get a 200 point pullback on the S & P which could be complete by Feb. 23rd.  Third waves tend to extend and we are looking at 5034 and 5045 and max. 5057 on S & P cash and 18090 and 18129 on NQ 100 futures.   NQ 100 futures  needs to take out 17879 to issue the start of a correction.

Bears salivate at the shorts for their next picnic basket but we do not see much as 4805 on S & P cash is all that we will get and then we have a 5th wave into late April that is due toward a minimum of  5157 and S & P cash  but it could get to 5257 easily. NDX cash has been projecting 18800.   Even with vehicles like SDS for 2x S & P shorts you might at best get a move from 2712 to 3050. Not worth playing.  For now we will wait for the 4th wave pullback and can then get back into the leading sectors like XLK for technology or XLI for industrials or XLV for health care.

METALS NOTES:
We have a key low due by Monday but we only can count on a 2 week rally into Feb. 23rd. It may be worth doing in case we finally get a pop with a crisis but metals continue to disappoint although we do like them this year and lows early next week will be key.

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-Barry 
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