Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR FRIDAY (5/4) We were reluctant to chase stocks because a bounce was inevitable given the way news Algos work. White House Economist Mark Calabria commented after the first day of trade discussions in China that he was “optimistic” and that US has “discreetly” given China a list of asks and that the day ended “pretty positive.” However, what algos clearly ignored is that Calabria concluded on a slightly more somber tone, saying that “the tough part in the talks is ensuring China keeps its promises.” And that was enough to ignite the momentum into the green for the day. Thinking a secondary low day for Friday and higher next week and will get ready to buy dips. China failing will lead to the new low but not the end of the world.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY (5/3) Often a weak close for stocks after an FOMC day will be followed by a a sell-off in Euro and Asia, and if you trade overnight, there is reason to sell. We should have a swing high for gold into Monday/Tuesday, a swing low for the dollar, and a recovery high for T-notes coming now.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/2) Another FOMC day. Our cycle work suggests a negative reaction but always a gamble and often full of surprises. Markets that are overdone could have a buy-the- fact or sell-the-fact reaction, as is the case with the dollar and gold. We’ll consider new strategies in the morning.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (5/1) We’re continuing toward pre-FOMC position squaring. A lot of mixed signals for stock market on Monday but if it does recover, it seems like a sale on the week if we get a good set-up and confirmation. May not have many good trades and then if we do put something on, we have to deal with FOMC day ALGOS and volatility. We may end up staying patient.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (4/30) We’re moving toward pre-FOMC position squaring and congestion, and then we also have month-end profit-taking by funds on Monday. A lot of mixed signals for stock market on Monday but if it does recover, it seems like a sale on the week if we get a good set-up and confirmation. May not have many good trades and then if we do put something on, we have to deal with FOMC day ALGOS and volatility. We may end up staying patient.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (4/27) Could end up with week-end profit-taking and then selling by Sunday as we move into the end of the month. Not ready to top-pick stocks tonight but may be open on Friday. Gold and dollar are fractions from key target areas.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (4/26) There’s a lot of energy on Thursday and we could see strong movements, and we have a bias toward upward action for stocks but will the trade do much before FOMC which is announcing May 2? That likely means pre-FOMC congestion, and if we are lucky some pattern completions overnight for gold and silver and the dollar, they would set up trades but we’ll soon have to deal with congestion. Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/25) Stocks look lower on Wednesday and we’re open to sell, and tech stocks look particularly bad. Still, these wash-out Tuesdays often recover overnight setting up the best new sales by 9 am. We have had a bias toward stocks into Monday and we just missed the boat by about a day.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (4/24) Stocks look higher on Tuesday but there’s an overall volatile cycle so markets could get whippy. Crude looked great and the correction may be over, and that makes us wonder if we can look for a slight new low on stocks on Wednesday. Will depend on if Tuesday’s rally is strong or not. Cycles are generally more positive.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (4/23) Not sure what to expect over the weekend. The trade was not happy with the Democratic Party suing Trump and company and the insanity of it just seems another way of keeping negative press energy going. The inside scoop appears that Putin and Trump want to reconcile so there has to be a new media daze to keep people glued to their TVs. Some minor technical damage for stocks, and we’re bearish into the end of the month but need a good bounce to sell, and it should be there for a few days.Continue reading