Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR TUESDAY: (10/10) Reversals in the dollar and metals remind us that we have to be alert for something on the S & P but it may not be Tuesday because upside pattern was not completed there to 2562 and NQ isn’t done either. That means long stocks today and watching for pattern completions. As noted below, a 30-point pullback on the S & P is all that we can count on this week but open to surprises given that gold needs to go to 1325 and silver to 1770 and oil is up this week. Still waiting for the apocalypse with North Korea and hopefully God has better plans that will cause less suffering.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (10/9) Feels like another waiting for apocalypse weekend with Trump talking about the calm before the storm and N. Korea liking to launch rockets before on their National Holiday on Tuesday. Hurricane Nate may only be Category 1 but headed for the Gulf region. Surprised that oil futures stayed near their lows. Chances are nothing will happen and the stock market will continue on its merry way higher.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (10/6) Another employment report day. Market is rather overbought and end of the week profit-taking could sneak in if there are any surprises. The NFP number has been weaker with the lost jobs in Florida and Houston. Market doesn’t seem to care. Upper target on the S & P toward 2562 now.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (10/5) Trade likely to be quiet before employment but not seeing anything that will knock the stock market down until next week. Gold could have a breakdown but not likely before a major report and then we have to decide how much to hold going into going into Friday.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (10/3) Employment report week often has a wide-range day on Monday and then a lot of complicated congestion patterns. While the SP cash has completed a minimum weekly chart pattern, short-term patterns still point higher this week and our monthly letter projects 2657 into 2018. We usually like the dust to settle on Monday but it is first of the month fund buying and also October seasonal buying for stocks, and they continue to be greedy despite larger and deeper technicals that are suggesting tiring.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (10/2) We took profits on a number of positions rather than get surprised by the Catalan referendum, which is now turning into a police state event. Our work suggests a dollar retracement into Tuesday and that should mean a pop in gold. Stocks are close to very major number at 2520 on the S & P but no major short until Oct 8.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (9/29) Position squaring by funds and others at the end of the month should dominate. Trade is often gun shy in taking a position, especially with N. Korea in the background. Market should be getting ready of first of month stock buying on Monday but we are very close to key stock market high.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (9/28) Thursday should continue the weekly trend but by Friday profit-taking and pre-weekend jitters should sneak in. Still, stocks are close to a fall high and it should complete the week of Oct. 1st.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (9/28) We got long on the early dip and didn’t get the upside breakout we wanted to see but cycles appear likely to hold up on Thursday before profit-taking sets in on Friday. New highs to 2409 were supportive on Wednesday with major support now at 2398 and 2494.50. If the market can take out 2510, then a blast up to 2520-22 is very possible. Will peel off profits on strength.

NEAR TERM: Looking at next week, the October top could come in as soon as Monday with Oct. 6 being a secondary high. The weeks of Oct. 8-20 are the ones that look more like the market will be in trouble.

OVERALL: As long as 2487 holds, the market needs two more new highs to complete the latest pattern into October before a break. We had thought at least 2520 would come in with now an upper target to 2525. Pullbacks into October may only go to 2405 and then the next push up would go to 2580. Not going to top-pick this market.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Thursday; lower Friday; higher Monday; lower Tuesday; secondary high by Oct. 6.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/27) Stocks should be higher on Wednesday but we wonder who really wants to run this market up with N. Korea tensions increasing. Dollar looks higher another day and gold lower and crude higher into Thursday.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/27) Three waves down overnight projects 2490.50. Willing to be a buyer overnight on dips. Day traders did well selling the 2500 region but the market didn’t go low enough to pick up a good risk/reward for new shorts so we may have to chase. Monday’ fall was enough to satisfy the minor pattern completion that was needed before two more highs are to come. The larger cycle into Wednesday/Thursday has been supportive in the past for important cycle highs, and it will be a strong force. Swing traders need to accumulate on dips based on patterns and cycles.
NEAR TERM: There is a larger cycle that will continue to hold this market up into Wednesday/Thursday and so any shorts have to scramble quickly. We may day trade the short-side depending on night conditions.
OVERALL: As long as 2485 holds, the market needs two more new highs to complete the latest pattern into October before a break. We had thought at least 2519 would come in.
Pullbacks into October may only go to 2405 and then the next push up would go to 2580. Not going to top-pick this market.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Wednesday.

FOR TUESDAY: (9/26) Stocks still potentially lower on Tuesday but the funds will come in and swoop up bargains for new highs yet. Heart-broken about the world tragedy and current state and the inability for us to help Puerto Rico. Please donate generously. 3.5 million people have been impacted, lacking very basic needs.Continue reading