Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR MONDAY: (1/23) We expect lower action with stocks on Monday from potential unrest from DC and weak cycles. We want to sell gold on rallies and stay short on oil. Dollar is still in transition but should resolve back to upside eventually.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (1/20) Our sense is that Trump will get inaugurated and that if there‘s violence it will be more likely on Saturday during the marches. Still, protest is not new to inaugurations and we have seen it with Bush and a few others. Cycles are not that bearish on Friday but we’re open to the market falling into Sunday/Monday as it continues to be congestively toppy and needs a larger 4th-wave fall. We would be surprised to get more then 2237 but it’s not impossible. Probably have to scale into other markets. There’s always some major event to wait for next but the technical patterns are telling us to get long dollars, and that a retracement on gold is needed, and that the S & P needs a new high to at least 2300. All of these moves could happen over the next few weeks.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (1/19) ECB is usually a big market mover so maybe the market will finally get jerked out of congestion. If not, the Trump inauguration should provide more excitement. Cycles are more jittery in general for the world over the next 2-3 weeks and any bad surprises anywhere are more likely to create a quick knee-jerk reaction. Trump’s dollar comments aren’t a deal killer but lower is coming.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/18) Lots of Yellen and Fed Gov. talks this week and they shouldn’t mean much but the chance of a March rate hike will probably push notes lower very soon. Draghi speaks at Davos but not much there either. Trump will get inaugurated and the issue will be how bad will the rioting be? Cycles are more jittery in general for the world over the next 2-3 weeks and any bad surprises anywhere are more likely to create a quick knee-jerk reaction. Trump’s dollar comments aren’t a deal killer but lower is coming.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (1/13) Banking stocks earnings will be a focus. Cycles look weak and we’re very open to selling stocks on Friday and holding into Sunday. Will the trade be selling before inauguration waiting on riots in DC? Running out of time for new highs for stocks. Dollar close to key 3-wave pullback at 100.44 and gold almost done at 1225-30.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (1/12) Not totally following the logic of the dollar on Wednesday and cycles are volatile still for the greenback on Thursday. We have a bias toward higher stocks, topping T-notes and lower gold and higher crude but volatility is a bit crazy and not likely to let up.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/11) Trump press conference may create new optimism based on some of the cycles running and seems safer to buy dips on the stock market overnight and on Wednesday. Gold needs a 3-day pullback and the dollar looks higher a few days and T-notes also. Oil has a transition day on Wednesday and then is a buy for 2-3 days.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (1/10) Failure to continue higher for stocks was a minor yellow flag and lower crude into Wednesday and higher T-notes all suggest that we may see a correction on stocks on Tuesday. We’re going to exit longs but if the market holds up well on Tuesday, we will buy them back as stocks seem higher Wednesday and Thursday. Many markets seem a bit of a congestive muddle this week so we’ll have to see what’s developing after congestion works itself off this week.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (1/9) It doesn’t seem like the employment report meant a whole lot or was a deal killer and if anything, we’re getting disappointing numbers for a Christmas employment month. Reports of disappointing sales by Kohls and Macys and closing down of 150 K-Mart/Sears stores is a reminder that this recovery is all smoke and mirrors. Still, hope cycles for stocks may keep it pushing up into Thursday and that may allow a dollar recovery. Larger patterns aren’t definitively done enough for us give up on Euro 107.00 cash this week. Gold and silver are also looking weaker this week.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (1/6) Friday’s employment report may not have much impact but China overnight may mean a lot more. The January employment report is often robust with Christmas hiring and that should allow a recovery for the dollar and could lead to a breakout on stocks. Our work had suggested lower stocks and crude and dollars into Friday and then recoveries next week. Next week seems complicated and we sense that some new wild news will have an impact but we aren’t totally clear on it yet.Continue reading