FOR FRIDAY: (12/2) Friday’s employment numbers may not mean much with a 98.6% chance for a rate hike Dec. 14 so even a bad number would not have an impact. The Italy vote and Austrian election seem more important for Sunday and given extreme reaction from Brexit and Trump, it’s hard to take anything home over the weekend. Either your top or bottom-pick very key numbers with big stops or stay out of a potential meat grinder where no one wins. Contract rollover to March currencies coming over the weekend and that’s a good reason to be flat there. Hard to imagine stocks blasting to new highs before European news and then we have ECB with an expected taper coming next Thursday. Currencies tend to over-react the most to these events and we’ll have to be flat for the weekend. OPEC good news is off sold off as they inevitably cheat on the agreements or fight later.Continue reading
Fund buying at first of month
FOR THURSDAY: (12/1) Trade is waiting for employment numbers on Friday, which may not mean much with a rate hike coming anyway and then Italy over the weekend. Hard to imagine stocks blasting to new highs before all that. Currencies tend to over react the most to these events and we’ll have to be flat for the weekend. OPEC good news is off sold off as they inevitably cheat on the agreements or fight later. For now it’s a good thing given that maybe deflation cycles are finally ending. Fund buying at first of the month for stocks can get delayed if it’s too close to employment report but not thinking it matters this month.Continue reading
Congestion mode continues; Italy vote ahead
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/30) Month-end position squaring should help US stocks come off. Trade has to be nervous about Italy over the weekend and that will increase volatility as we move into the end of the week. Sickly congestion that’s countertrend to last week isn’t giving much to trade but there may be reasons to get long bonds in case something bigger to the upside happens. Continue reading
Congestion likely on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (11/29) GDP and many other reports on Tuesday may get the markets moving again and then OPEC on Wednesday. At this point selling stocks and buying bonds and selling the dollar and buying gold are countertrend to the trends but that may be all there is for scalp traders going into the end of the month. We often see a big flourish early in the week and then congestion into the employment report, and that’s probably what will happen on Tuesday.Continue reading
S&P cash projects 2211
FOR FRIDAY: (11/25) Markets do not really close much because of Asian and European trading so expect to come back to some movement and you can watch until noon on Thursday morning and again at 5 pm on Thursday night if you are bored with your Thanksgiving dinner. Not much to add to Wednesday’s report but we’ll update you on Friday morning. We’re working on our monthly report and hope to get it complete by Monday or Tuesday of next week. Continue reading
Even thinner volume before holiday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/23) Even thinner volume on Wednesday and Friday likely and only day-traders pick up a few points on these days. As always, some huge flourish after the holidays but until then, not much happening.
T-notes seem lower all week
FOR MONDAY: (11/21) We’re moving into holiday trade and each day get worse with lower volume and sometimes exaggerated moves. It looks like metals do short-covering this week and the S & P pulls back to at least 2148-50 but T-notes seem lower all week and the dollar may take a break also.
Can S&P take out 2200?
FOR FRIDAY: (11/18) Speculative cycles are still strong on Friday if acceleration wants to happen. Usually the trade is worn out on Friday and takes profits and gives us a break for a sideways day. People disappear for the holidays so volume should drop next week and trading becomes dangerous sometimes in thin conditions. We’ll probably take profits on short euros and gold and will see if the S & P can take out 2200 but will take partial profits.
Cycles suggest a surprise for stocks
FOR THURSDAY: (11/17) Not sure if Yellen’s testimony will mean much with an expectation for a rate hike in December. Cycles are such that a surprise or Stocks are close to confirming the 5-wave pattern to 2220 and the dollar confirmed the 100.55 but extensions are possible.
Dollar is close to being done at 100.55
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/16) We have some very volatile and speculative cycles happening into Friday and it coincides with Janet Yellen’s testimony so whatever she says, the markets may overreact. Stocks are close to confirming the 5-wave pattern to 2220 and the dollar is close to being done at 100.55 but extensions are possible. Think it will be quiet on Wednesday before the Yellen tornado on Thursday.