Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR TUESDAY: (9/27) Lots of news this week and lots of Fed Governor speak and Deutsche Bank bubbling in the background. Hard to tell would tip DB over the cliff or when it will happen and would really have to do some work on it. Sometimes these news events just gather momentum out of escalating fear that is unfounded. Who know? We always worry about sucker punches as the powers that be do not let these markets fall for very long. Will be hard to take out S&P 2149 and 2153 now. Have to take one day at a time. Not sure how much the debate will really mean except big points for the media.

FOR THURSDAY: (9/22) While the chances for a Dec. rate hike seem high now, not sure the trade will worry too much with projections for only 2 hikes next year. BOJ is out of the way and they disappointed and not sure Draghi can do much or will want to on Thursday. S & P patterns and cycles are good for upward action for at least one more day, and we can sell rallies in notes and the dollar on dips; gold and silver should reverse from overdone conditions on Thursday. (For details and recommendations see our full timer.)

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/21) At the moment, our bias is thinking that stocks will go higher on Wednesday and Thursday and the dollar will recover from a dovish announcement and gold will go lower into Thursday. That suggests no hike but maybe a nod for one in December for sure during the Yellen press conference. We also have Bank of Japan on Wednesday and then Draghi on Thursday so more fun and games coming. Continued coilings are starting to drive everyone crazy.

FOR TUESDAY: (9/20) Not expecting a lot of action on Tuesday but stocks and the dollar point lower one more day and gold higher one more day. At the moment, our bias is thinking that stocks will go higher on Wednesday and Thursday and the dollar will recover and gold will go lower into Thursday. That suggests no hike but maybe a nod for one for sure in December. We also have Bank of Japan on Wednesday and then Draghi on Thursday so more fun and games coming. Continued coilings are starting to drive everyone crazy.

FOR MONDAY: (9/19) We’re getting close to FOMC-Day and that means more sickly congestions. Cycles are more volatile than usual the next few days and so we might get larger ranges than expected. Trouble with European stocks and Deutsche Bank may start meaning more than another expected decision on Wednesday not to raise US rates. We do see a bounce on gold this week and a fall on the dollar and lower stocks. Sunday is a transition day and we’ll see what develops into Monday.

FOR FRIDAY: (9/16) Michigan Sentiment may be the key on Friday. Cycles are very volatile the next few sessions and while we would like to get end of the week congestive slop, there are likely to be big news events the next few trading days that increase volatility. With all of these trades now, you have to exit quickly and pick your spots carefully.

FOR THURSDAY: (9/15) Lots of reports on Thursday but will the trade pay attention to them or continue in triangular congestive patterns before next Wednesday’s FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings? We have to continue to do quick trades but at this point stocks are oversold and need a bounce into Friday.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/14) We’re probably going to start choppy congestion triangle early as we’re 5 sessions out from the FOMC meeting. This makes trading more precarious since you have to get in and out very quickly, which has been the case anyway lately. At least the last of the Fed cheerleaders and detractors is over with the blackout period but the market is taking profits after Brainard’s dovish comments again did another hockey-puck save to Friday’s huge fall. Skittish behavior will require quick in and out movement to bank profit quickly.

FOR TUESDAY: (9/13) Not much news this week until Thursday and we do have the start of the Fed Governor Blackout so at least we can stop dealing with their absurd games for a week. We just hope these markets don’t move into pre-FOMC paralysis mode but that may be the case. For now we can buy dips on stocks into Friday and be short next week and see what develops. Other than that we may see a lot of chop-city.

FOR MONDAY: (9/12) Finally breaking out of the doldrums as stocks had their biggest move in 7 months and it is all too welcome. We are thinking another flourish to the downside and then recovering the rest of the week for a sucker punch and then lower into FOMC. Crude will be a sale on a bounce for a few days and the dollar may retrace from Monday’s high for a few days. Metals are getting hit by the deflation cycle which goes on another week and we will not buy them even if we get a sucker bounce for a few days after Monday.