Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR THURSDAY: (8/25) There is a trigger cycle for the fear cycle of the week on Thursday but will it get delayed until Friday because of Janet? We think stocks have finally issued a sell signal for the 4th wave and doubt there’s more than 2140 for the S & P. Metals are unraveling and are still vulnerable into Friday so it may be much worse than expected. Dollar is so subject to surprises and has become a bit crazy but patterns and cycles point lower into Friday.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/24) There is a key 29-year cycle that is rare peaking overnight. It has often been correlated with major world catastrophes and last time we saw it in 1986, it was connected to Chernobyl but there was a delayed reaction. For now the trade is focusing on Janet and more free money. We crunched cycles carefully and T-notes seem higher into Friday and suggest Janet will be dovish. The dollar seems clearly lower into Friday, and that correlates but will the trade be that happy to get free money for the stocks so close to 2200 on the S & P. We’re now thinking metals are lower into Monday.

FOR TUESDAY: (8/23) Not sure we learned much from Monday’s action except that the trade is only really caring about Fed Governor remarks and has all those ALGOS programmed pretty well to kill traders standing in the way. Indecisive cycles have a chance to break hard the next few days but possible all will wait for Janet on Friday. We will continue to trade pattern and cycles as we see it.

FOR MONDAY: (8/22) Mondays in the summer have been rather quiet and uneventful. Cycles turn more volatile and geopolitical energy is picking up with Russia threatening to invade Ukraine. Dollar is due to fall next week and we need to buy gold on pullbacks. Oil should peak Monday and be lower much of the week.

FOR THURSDAY: (8/18) Markets are tricky with schizophrenic FOMC governors playing games and jerking markets around. FOMC minutes seemed more hawkish than expected but the market took it the other way. We’re hoping jerky markets stop but for now they’re challenging. Getting to a point where we can be selling dollars and buying metals over the next few days; stocks continue to act toppy.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/17) Stocks acting toppy with Bullard’s surprise hawk attack and could be any secondary highs on Wednesday for stocks may need to be sold as market looks like it’s running out of steam, and we had it lower next week. Dollar may hold up a few days on Bullard and push gold down a bit for a few days. Oil is running out of steam but one more new high and a pullback would set up a buy.

Stocks’ cycles still look higher on Tuesday and Wednesday and this market will keep frustrating bears. Gold seems lower into Wednesday and oil is due for a pullback but the trend is up now. Dollar should be higher for a few more days but lately we’ve been getting a lot of surprises with currencies so be cautious.

FOR FRIDAY: (8/12) We did extra research, as cycles and patterns are getting more bizarre. We decided that stocks may hold up another week unless we get a major break below 2164 quickly on Friday. Dollar may retrace on Friday but looks higher next week and gold also needs to go to 1330 next week. Oil is bizarre for the moment and can be left alone.

FOR THURSDAY: (8/11) The dollar’s sharp fall on Tuesday night created a bit of a panic for us and we had one of the worst trading days of the year as we didn’t see it coming. Regrouping here. Stocks continue to act toppy. Cycles are more likely to trigger deeper falls in many markets on Thursday and stocks may finally issue a deeper sell signal.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/10) Stocks could hold up one more day and patterns to the downside may not be done for metals until Monday. The most bullish pattern would allow at least S & P 2140 and then new highs while we have been targeting at least 2100 into August 19. Big picture for gold still suggests 1325 and possibly 1312 before the next push up.