Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR TUESDAY: (8/9) S & P has not issued a sell signal and these topping patterns can stretch out more. Thursday/Friday seems like there will be a larger chance for a break and Wednesday doesn’t look great either. Still willing to sell silver and gold and crude is a buy now on the breakout. Dollar sill should do a secondary high.

https://youtu.be/YdmjMU_6y2c

FOR MONDAY: (8/8) Was the employment report a game changer? Too early to tell. While some profit-taking will set in on Monday from overdone conditions, we may not know right away–and if no breakdowns/breakouts happen, we have to stay open for pattern completion on many of the markets rather than getting stuck with a key weekend cycle turn here. Still, a fear cycle tends to dominate next week and it may trigger exaggerated action. Deeper pattern completions to 1312 on gold, 1887 on silver and 129.60 on the pound and higher to 9757 on the dollar have us thinking that maybe S & P 2218 has a chance if we don’t get a big breakdown soon.

FOR FRIDAY: (8/5) Another employment report day. We have a bias for stocks holding up but any surprise news might change the verdict, as cycles look like they will weaken next week. Battling computer ALGOS is often tricky so we’ll have to go with pattern and looking closely  at cycles into Sunday.

FOR THURSDAY: (8/4) While we got into a number of positions on Wednesday, it was more for positioning for the bigger picture. Bounces are all bigger than we like and that leaves us vulnerable and having to position trade through chaos on Friday with big stops. We’re going to retreat as much as we can and see what develops. Trading the week of employment report is always a congestive mess but some of the breaks are more than they should be, like silver and crude, and suggests that something is wrong. Big energy point for everything still into Sunday night.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/3) Best day for stocks to fall is Wednesday as they congest into employment numbers on Friday. Dollar may finally find support also. Crude still in trouble until Friday. If the S & P stays above 2133, it still may be a minor 4th wave matching the July 5-6 fall and be followed by a new high into Friday. By next week, stocks could unravel for 1-2 weeks.

FOR TUESDAY: (8/2) Employment report week is often congestive so it‘s rarely a good idea to chase markets that are overdone to the upside like gold and silver–and stocks, for that matter. Usually this week lends itself to a lot of quick trades and we’ll look for some in the morning. Getting away with position trades will be challenging this week.

FOR MONDAY: (8/1) A huge complex of cycles peaks into Sunday night and Monday. We find that stocks often rally the first day of the month and then pullback 30-40 S & P points and congest before the employment report. Currencies are very overdone and hard to chase but overall the dollar looks weaker until Aug. 7 even if we get congestion for a bit. T-notes look higher into Aug. 7 and metals also higher. The issue with all the market is finding entries and dealing with pre-employment report congestion.

FOR FRIDAY: (7/29) Trade waiting on the Bank of Japan data and if you’re a night owl, you may be able to take advantage of it. We also have month-end profit-taking coming and rollover for August gold happening. Not sure GDP will mean that much in the morning. Projecting 1385 on gold’s current move higher over the coming weeks.