S&P due for a bounce this week

FOR MONDAY: (10/15) Lows held and we have to buy dips on pullbacks by early Monday for stocks in case we get a rubber-band reaction. Always have to worry about weekend craziness but cycles aren’t that negative, and the market should pull out of a tailspin by Sunday night and start a nice rally. We’ve seen people get too beared up too quickly, including last Feb., and look for some kind of recovery, with more dire cycles kicking in the week Oct. 22 if we’re too see another leg lower.Continue reading

S&P cash patterns suggest rubber-band bounce to 2880

FOR THURSDAY: (10/11) Usually when the US spills, China and Europe follow overnight and then it snowballs for the US in the morning. We still sense that the market can recover out of this mess but have to leave it alone overnight and see what develops. A fall pullback for stocks would be healthy, and the first leg lower may be done by Oct. 26, then a bounce, and then a secondary low into early December.Continue reading

S&P didn’t breakout enough to confirm it’s done

FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/10) We have been hopeful for a recovery for a few days or a week and so far, we have only secondary lows and not new lows but much under 2860 on S & P cash and we will fall another rung. We missed Hurricane Michael in the news until late and that would prevent crude from breaking down to the lower rung but they often sell those hurricane rallies when things aren’t as bad as expected, and it’s moving more toward Florida and may not be as much of a threat. Treasury notes seem lower the rest of the week. We got short gold on the rally overnight but missed silver.Continue reading

Gold issued a clear sell signal

FOR TUESDAY: (10/9) We’ll have to see how post-holiday energy settles but stocks are oversold and should continue to bounce and maybe even for a week. Gold issued a clear sell signal and the dollar still looks higher; crude needs to go to 7190.Continue reading

Crude oil looks mostly lower next week

FOR MONDAY: (10/8) Quasi-Holiday with Columbus Day and a banking holiday, and cash bonds and currencies are closed in the US. If stocks don’t crash on Sunday or early Monday, we have a bias for a recovery. We have both the dollar and gold higher next week and think the dollar be the correct one higher and wouldn’t buy gold. Crude oil looks mostly lower also and T-notes may bottom quickly at 117.05 and be done for the week.Continue reading

S&P looks lower into Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (10/5) Cycles for overnight and into the employment report are edgy, and the S & P could quickly fall to 2884-5. Still, a violent recovery could happen next week so the surprise may be another bear trap. We’re in topping territory but these markets rarely do V-tops. Lower T-notes on tap and higher dollar for Friday could lead to a gold collapse. We often get surprises and any huge miss of the whisper number of 500,000, and the market may give it up.Continue reading

Mixed cycles next few days

FOR THURSDAY: (10/4) Trade didn’t like Powell’s hawkish tone, and bonds sold off heavily and stocks followed. Cycles are mixed the next few days but we have had a bias toward a retracement into Friday and that has to have us concerned. If it’s not severe, we‘re still open to 2960 into next week. Usually these hawkish Fed comments snowball overnight in Europe and Asia so higher prices for the dollar still coming if you trade at night.Continue reading

S&P looks higher into Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/3) Lots of Fed Speak on Wednesday and trade congesting into Friday’s employment report. Coming up to a lot of turns and will be hard for stocks to go up too much past next week. The dollar looks like it will run out of steam and oil also while metals look like they have early life, which is contra-seasonal.Continue reading