Will the Stock Market Surprise us with A Rebound this Week?  

Today is shaping up to be the most bearish session of the week for the stock market —barring an unexpected upside surprise from NVDA earnings for Wednesday , which remains a major sentiment driver for the broader tech complex. A negative shock, on the other hand, could weigh heavily on global risk assets. 

Last week, we highlighted that the next meaningful cycle low is likely to emerge in the first week of December. Our broader outlook still anticipates a rally extending into January, but with recent softness across equities, the question now is whether that January move becomes a secondary high rather than a decisive breakout. 

A few weak sessions are not enough to invalidate the larger trend structure, but price action does suggest rising odds that S&P 500 cash 6244 could come into play. For now, the 6550 level on cash remains a critical area of support, and the market’s response there will likely set the tone for December positioning. 

We are not changing our core forecast at this time. It will take additional market confirmation before we adjust downside targets for either the S&P or NQ. By Friday, the structure should be clearer as volume firms and traders react to key levels. 

Metals: No change in outlook for gold and silver—our timing work continues to favor buying opportunities in the first few weeks of December. 

Energy: Crude oil still appears vulnerable to another breakdown; patience remains warranted before attempting long exposure. 

Crypto: Bitcoin continues to set up constructively, but correlations with NQ remain a concern. A sharp equity sell-off could open the door to significantly better value—possibly even toward 80,000, should the 92,000 threshold give way. This week had been the earliest window for a potential buy, but volatility may offer a deeper entry.

Trial our Market Timing Edge for 1 month:

ETFs: https://www.fortucast.com/market-reports/etf#plans
 

Financials: https://www.fortucast.com/market-reports/financial/#plans

Follow our blog here: https://commoditytimers.com/blog/

 

Recovery in Silver is Stronger than Gold

Recovery in Silver Is Stronger Than Gold DEC SILVER. 11.11.25 – Silver is stronger than gold and has already hit 5109 overnight. There is time for an extension to 5219, but above 5225, a new bullish pattern would allow for acceleration to 5720. Silver has different rhythms than gold, so we will stay open.

We do expect to be able to buy Silver closer to 41-42 in December and the next push up in the winter will at least go to 6100. Cycles are similar to gold, and we expect to see a higher price in the very short term, with the upward movement likely to be completed by November 25th.

Stay on top of the latest daily movement with a trial of Fortucast Financial Timer or Fortucast ETF Timer. Short-term offer for a 2-week trial for $29.95.

Gold Cycle Still Strong Until Sept. 25th

Gold Cycle Still Strong Until Sept. 25th

December Gold

MORNING  COMMENTS:  Gold is only up slightly, but it will not take much to take out 3715, and that could continue the rally, and even 3830 later in the month is not far-fetched. The pullback we saw Thursday, which projected as low as 3571, is not being reflected in the cycles, and geopolitical tensions are too high to give it much of a chance.

 

WORSE CASE PULLBACK: We did get a reaction off the key resistance area, but it stayed under 3715 and could pull back to 3571 and max. 3571.  That will set up a buy.

 

BOTTOM LINE: If the market surpasses 3715, it will then likely take off toward 3789, 3841, and 3885.  The most bullish pattern for the Nov. high is 3969 or 4100 even.

 

We must remember that this market will be higher until September 25.     Gold will have to take out 3495 to negate the uptrend.  We continue to underestimate this market and expect acceleration rather than capitulation.

 

LARGER PICTURE: The current move is starting to project 4508 and 4909. As indicated by the monthly chart, we are not yet clear when that will materialize. However, we have noted cycle highs into November of this year and into May 2026.

OVERALL: The next major cycle high is expected in November 2025.

LARGER CYCLES:  .   We are watching highs into Nov. 2025.  Longer-term gold cycles peak in the years 2027-28, and the most exaggerated projection for gold in that time window is around  4,918 but much higher is possible if we do get some of the economic collapses in the world that have been pending with 115 trillion dollars of world debt.  . With a major top for stocks since the Depression low in 1932, gold may become a significant asset if the government does not ban it, as it has in the past.  Still, it would take a while for that to happen.

The ETF GLD is projecting 350 this fall .  

Stay on top of this exciting market with a monthly subscription. 

TESTIMONIALS FROM OUR PARTNERS

I have been a subscriber for many years and the first thing I do every morning is dial Fortucast and read your financial forecast. You should be very proud-you do not last 32 years if you are not good. Very best luck for the future.

B.L., South Carolina


Since getting your full service with intra-day updates in the last year, I better understand what goes into just how difficult your job is and how comprehensive your “guys” and you actually are. I continue to use your service for different decision making processes but in the end has been a growing benefit to our business. I’ve ALSO gotten smarter in how to use your “stuff”.  After 10 years+ getting Financial Fortucast, giving credit where credit is due.

P.R., LPL Financials


Barry, I am amazed with your service. Your direction indicators serve as a road map through the volatility of the financial markets. Thank you!

E.G., Bismark, N.D.

CRUDE AND ENERGY OIL STOCKS ISSUE BUY SIGNALS 

CRUDE AND ENERGY OIL STOCKS ISSUE BUY SIGNALS 

.MARCH E-MINI CRUDE
.
(2/11)  We got the official breakout and with resistance at 7445 and 7480 and then 7600.  Pullbacks are likely to stay above 7250.  This is still early in the move and we see higher prices into the end of the month and probably early March.  Pullback energy into later in the week.

We have started buying XLE and XOP and USO is holding and looking better.
……

LARGER CYCLES: The 12-year cycle is supported into June 2025. There are many complicated cycles into April/May and we need to do major research and will report .

OVERALL:  We are not 12-year cycle is friendly for crude into June 2025 and war tensions are not going to go away.
.

ENERGY ETF’S

.  …

USO:  (2/11)     Looks like it rallied in 5 waves and may stop near 7900 and pullback to 7610 for the best entry or a place to add.

The bullish pattern would go to 8900-9000 next and that means we should be buying as the risk to max. 7280 is not great.

Both XLE and XOP are giving good set ups so consider them.

XLE:   (2/11)  We started buying XLE.  Working on next entry.

Long-term investor position is to 117.65 or 122.00.  .

XOP (2/11)   We started buying XOP on Friday and would added at the open of Monday    Should not take out 132.00 or something is wrong.  Long-term investor projection is to 210. Looking for next entry.

Stay on top of these questions by getting a 1 month trial of Fortucast Timers for 97.00/month.

https://www.fortucast.com/#products

OUR FREE BLOGS:
https://commoditytimers.com/blog/

Or :
Try our newsletter  for one month for 97.00

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

CLICK HERE TO SEE ALL OUR BLOGS AND SCROLL TO THE BOTTOM OF THE BLOG PAGE TO SUBSCRIBE TO https://commoditytimers.com/blog/

OUR FREE BLOGS:
https://commoditytimers.com/blog/

TECH STOCKS FAILING–WHAT’S NEXT?

TECH STOCKS FAILING–WHAT’S NEXT? 

 

NQ 100 futures took out 20200 intraday to issue a sell signal and project r19769 and 19655.  Cluster cycles still seem weak into Friday and Sunday so a deeper break is coming.  Key Megacaps have also completed some key patterns with NVDA stalling at 144 and  MSFT even failing to get to 433 for a 2nd wave and Tesla has major support at 209 going into the earnings report in a few hours and could easily breakdown if it is bad and get to 179.   The XLK has a chance to retrace to 220.

Tech still could come back so where is it going thereafter? Do we dare to play so close to major topping action with the patterns from the 1932, 2009 and 2020 lows just about complete?

STOCK MARKET AFTER THE RATE CUT–WHAT’S NEXT

STOCK MARKET AFTER THE RATE CUT–WHAT’S NEXT?

We did not expect a 50 bps cut and that did not allow a pullback. We have been pushing upper targets of  at least  5860 on S & P cash  since last Sunday for the long-term focus and that could extend to 6000.    Many markets are harder to chase up here  and we expect the rally to stall by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week but will it be at cash 5800 by then?

The breakout on NQ now gives a futures projection go about 20750 at least and we can feel better about some of the Metacap extended targets. Its just a matter of finding entries.

Meta is projecting 573 before a pullbacks to 513 and then our old target of 605-613 will come in. We are looking for a pullback into early October.  TSLA could get to 245 and then pullback to 221 for a buy. MSFT at best might get to 466 and then pullback to 421. AMZN project 194 and then a pullback.   Given where they are, you can see some upward potential for a few more days if you want to play.

NVDA is not far from 122 target.

We have a handle on the bigger picture also.  Get our daily service and try it for a month to keep on top of these fast moving markets.

Stay on top of these questions by getting a 1 month trial of Fortucast Timers for 97.00/month.

https://www.fortucast.com/#products

Stay in top of new entries for both price and time and strategies using Fortucast Financial and ETF Timers

OUR FREE BLOGS:
https://commoditytimers.com/blog/

FUTURE OF NQ AND TECH?

NQ is bouncing and futures will probably stall near 18862 and pullback a 200 points today. If you want to gamble on the debate on CPI for Wednesday, NQ is poised to get up to 19400 before the next setback. That is a countertrend trade as new lows will come from there.  How much of a pullback?   Upside for key tech stocks with NVDA to 111 is not much and APPLE’s preview was a dud the market is back at key support at 216.  We expect a recovery into FOMC and then another push lower and seasonally, stocks often bottom in early October during election years. The market continues to flirt with a major muti-year top but has not triggered a major signal yet and will do so if S & P cash takes out 4950.  Stay in touch with this fascinating market. WIll NVDA spook everyone and tank to 79-83?


https://www.fortucast.com/#products

Stay in top of new entries for both price and time and strategies using Fortucast Financial and ETF Timers

OUR FREE BLOGS:
https://commoditytimers.com/blog/

MARKETS ON THE EDGE OF BIG MOVES

MARKETS ON THE EDGE OF BIG MOVES:

Crude has been warning us all week that it is tiring and hit 7689 overnight which is a more bearish signal but that the market has to take out 7500.   Silver again failed to break out overnight and take out 2790 and if so it may only go to 2820.  Gold is treading water and we would be thrilled to see 2360 and worry about a break into May 21st to 2272 or 2224.  Copper put in a topping signal and is generally in trouble until June.   Platinum should fail at 1000 and come off with gold and silver.  The metals complex is telling us that it wants to start a deeper correction unless some X-factor appears with Russia or the Middle East.

.  Stock indices completed minimum upward targets for the year and are coming off but we need 5120 on S & P cash to come out to give a confirming sell signal.  Natural gas continues to look firm and has stayed above the key 2.21 area and has put in a 4 year low and looks good for investments with UNG..  .  Bitcoin continues to fade and we have weak cycles into Friday and if NQ confirms a breakdown, then we worry about a fall to 50000 before the market comes back.

Stay on top of all these exciting active markets with Fortucast Timers.

Special short-term offer  2 weeks trial only 29.95.

Stay on top of the stock market and ETF’s  and all the financials markets.Subscribe to our financial market reports today  for a special 2 week trail for 29.95 at: 

https://commoditytimers.com/2-week-trial-offer/

Last Hurrah for Tech Stocks

JUNE NQ 100 FUTURES NOTES

TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/24) NQ got to 17795 today and a B wave pullback could get to 17515 in the next day  before the market would get up to 18050 or a bit more into Friday/Monday.  This is the last chance to get out of tech stocks which should fall into August and if the S & P cash falls to 3800 or more, NQ 100 futures  will at least retest the Jan 2023 low near 10750. 

XLK (4/24)     .  First bounce will go to 199.62.  Focus on bounces to exit as buying is countertrend. Not clear on pullback.  With NQ projecting 18050, we might see 204.00 before it’s over. 

Gold Issues Sell Signal on Inflationary CPI. What’s next?

GOLD ISSUES SELL SIGNAL ON INFLATIONARY CPI DATA

(2/13)  The CPI came out inflationary today up 3.1% and hotter than expected. With rising oil this month, not sure it will come down next month.  Contrary to belief, gold does not like inflation.

April Gold future below 2004 is issuing a more serious sell signal.  Below that the extended pattern to 1957 or 1940 will come in.   Is CPI a game changer?  We will throw cycles out the window for now and only an X-factor event will save gold and we are in the window for one so it’s hard to be too short.

Our original cycle work had supported a bounce here but a little news can throw cycles out the window.

Are we having another Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown Moment?       Technically, we need to see Gold take out 2085 to get more interested and then we may only get 2110.

GLD:  Patterns on GLD would look better if 181-2 came in and that would complete a 2nd wave retracement.    The market could hold 184.00 and bounce to 188.00 and still go to 181-2.

CRUDE OIL NOTES:   Breakout here points to 7940 and 8050 and above there 8250.  Market is higher until at least Friday and not sure that the Middle East tensions will go away and create much of a fall.  A close above 8050 would  push up  to 9000 and 9600 and even 118.00 into the summer.  Seasonals are lower in March often.   There will be a good long-term play setting up here.

NOTE: The stock market reversed per our last update to you and should start a fall to at least 4800 on cash.
…

 Stay on top of the metals  and crude market and our ETF picks with  daily analysis with the Fortucast Financial Timer or Fortucast ETF timer.  One-month trials start at 97.00. 

-Barry 
Subscribe to our financial market reports today at https://fortucast.com/market-reports/financial#plans 

For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

CLICK HERE TO SEE ALL OUR BLOGS AND SCROLL TO THE BOTTOM OF THE BLOG PAGE TO SUBSCRIBE TO https://commoditytimers.com/blog/OUR FREE BLOGS:
https://commoditytimers.com/blog/

Try our newsletter  for one month