TECH STOCKS FAILING–WHAT’S NEXT? 

 

NQ 100 futures took out 20200 intraday to issue a sell signal and project r19769 and 19655.  Cluster cycles still seem weak into Friday and Sunday so a deeper break is coming.  Key Megacaps have also completed some key patterns with NVDA stalling at 144 and  MSFT even failing to get to 433 for a 2nd wave and Tesla has major support at 209 going into the earnings report in a few hours and could easily breakdown if it is bad and get to 179.   The XLK has a chance to retrace to 220.

Tech still could come back so where is it going thereafter? Do we dare to play so close to major topping action with the patterns from the 1932, 2009 and 2020 lows just about complete?

STOCK MARKET AFTER THE RATE CUT–WHAT’S NEXT?

We did not expect a 50 bps cut and that did not allow a pullback. We have been pushing upper targets of  at least  5860 on S & P cash  since last Sunday for the long-term focus and that could extend to 6000.    Many markets are harder to chase up here  and we expect the rally to stall by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week but will it be at cash 5800 by then?

The breakout on NQ now gives a futures projection go about 20750 at least and we can feel better about some of the Metacap extended targets. Its just a matter of finding entries.

Meta is projecting 573 before a pullbacks to 513 and then our old target of 605-613 will come in. We are looking for a pullback into early October.  TSLA could get to 245 and then pullback to 221 for a buy. MSFT at best might get to 466 and then pullback to 421. AMZN project 194 and then a pullback.   Given where they are, you can see some upward potential for a few more days if you want to play.

NVDA is not far from 122 target.

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FUTURE OF NQ AND TECH?

NQ is bouncing and futures will probably stall near 18862 and pullback a 200 points today. If you want to gamble on the debate on CPI for Wednesday, NQ is poised to get up to 19400 before the next setback. That is a countertrend trade as new lows will come from there.  How much of a pullback?   Upside for key tech stocks with NVDA to 111 is not much and APPLE’s preview was a dud the market is back at key support at 216.  We expect a recovery into FOMC and then another push lower and seasonally, stocks often bottom in early October during election years. The market continues to flirt with a major muti-year top but has not triggered a major signal yet and will do so if S & P cash takes out 4950.  Stay in touch with this fascinating market. WIll NVDA spook everyone and tank to 79-83?

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MARKETS ON THE EDGE OF BIG MOVES:

Crude has been warning us all week that it is tiring and hit 7689 overnight which is a more bearish signal but that the market has to take out 7500.   Silver again failed to break out overnight and take out 2790 and if so it may only go to 2820.  Gold is treading water and we would be thrilled to see 2360 and worry about a break into May 21st to 2272 or 2224.  Copper put in a topping signal and is generally in trouble until June.   Platinum should fail at 1000 and come off with gold and silver.  The metals complex is telling us that it wants to start a deeper correction unless some X-factor appears with Russia or the Middle East.

.  Stock indices completed minimum upward targets for the year and are coming off but we need 5120 on S & P cash to come out to give a confirming sell signal.  Natural gas continues to look firm and has stayed above the key 2.21 area and has put in a 4 year low and looks good for investments with UNG..  .  Bitcoin continues to fade and we have weak cycles into Friday and if NQ confirms a breakdown, then we worry about a fall to 50000 before the market comes back.

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JUNE NQ 100 FUTURES NOTES

TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/24) NQ got to 17795 today and a B wave pullback could get to 17515 in the next day  before the market would get up to 18050 or a bit more into Friday/Monday.  This is the last chance to get out of tech stocks which should fall into August and if the S & P cash falls to 3800 or more, NQ 100 futures  will at least retest the Jan 2023 low near 10750. 

XLK (4/24)     .  First bounce will go to 199.62.  Focus on bounces to exit as buying is countertrend. Not clear on pullback.  With NQ projecting 18050, we might see 204.00 before it’s over. 

GOLD ISSUES SELL SIGNAL ON INFLATIONARY CPI DATA

(2/13)  The CPI came out inflationary today up 3.1% and hotter than expected. With rising oil this month, not sure it will come down next month.  Contrary to belief, gold does not like inflation.

April Gold future below 2004 is issuing a more serious sell signal.  Below that the extended pattern to 1957 or 1940 will come in.   Is CPI a game changer?  We will throw cycles out the window for now and only an X-factor event will save gold and we are in the window for one so it’s hard to be too short.

Our original cycle work had supported a bounce here but a little news can throw cycles out the window.

Are we having another Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown Moment?       Technically, we need to see Gold take out 2085 to get more interested and then we may only get 2110.

GLD:  Patterns on GLD would look better if 181-2 came in and that would complete a 2nd wave retracement.    The market could hold 184.00 and bounce to 188.00 and still go to 181-2.

CRUDE OIL NOTES:   Breakout here points to 7940 and 8050 and above there 8250.  Market is higher until at least Friday and not sure that the Middle East tensions will go away and create much of a fall.  A close above 8050 would  push up  to 9000 and 9600 and even 118.00 into the summer.  Seasonals are lower in March often.   There will be a good long-term play setting up here.

NOTE: The stock market reversed per our last update to you and should start a fall to at least 4800 on cash.
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METALS AND ENERGY UPDATES

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FALL GEOPOLITICAL PREVIEW
Major climax cycles are set up around  BRICS Summit in South Africa on August 21-23.   Also into  August 23-28th there are several international and geo-political cycles peaking and not sure how they resolve. Tensions between leaders and government are also climaxing into August 26-27th.  Something major will happen then in the world.  Will the stock market care? We do have cycle lows due into that time window.  

Fall is usually not a great time for the stock market.  We looked at our geopolitical cycles and there are a number of things setting up.

1)    BRICS desire to destroy the dollar.
2)    The political and Presidential crises in America could hurt the perception of investing in the US.  We sense a late October peak here. We remember the Watergate scandal in 1973-4/
3)    Geopolitical tensions with China over Taiwan have an eerie 18.5-year cycle peaking into November.  
4)    Another eerie geopolitical cycle with North Korea nuclear muscle-flexing is also peaking into November.
5)    The reality of the FOMC  will continue to hit.

We have some thoughts on fall downward potential.  It is possible with the repeat of the Oct 1987 crash cycle into this October and November and it is connected to the 12 year cycle going into the third time around.

Gold cycles are very supportive for a strong rally in September and Bitcoin will probably benefit from this mess.  For now we are in the dog days of August wondering if 4650 on the S & P cash will hit before the craziness.  

 
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METALS COMPLEX TIMING AND READY FOR A CORRECTION

August gold issued a sell signal this morning as it came off on the ECB rate hike and comments and hit 1942. It may get to 1926 before having a minor bounce into August 1st but the trade tends to sell metals off into the end of the month which is Monday. Silver is also close to a breakdown signal at 2410 on Sept. futures . The ETFs are also in trouble as GDX and GLD came off sharply and also SLV. How far will they fall into the August low. When will they bottom? What kind of hope is there for the fall for a strong rally? We do see a financial crisis this fall and gold and silver will finally take off and continue into next year but for now they are ready to correct.

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-Barry

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Cracks in the Markets and the Economy

The Silicon Valley Banking crisis and then,

that of Signature Bank on Sunday are the beginning of cracks appearing.

• The FDIC rode to the rescue but will the band-aid solve the larger problem of raising rates from 0 to 5% in a year? 

• What will happen at next week’s FOMC meeting? 

• We do not see the correction in the stock market being over until April, so how low will it go? 

• Moreover, there is a bankruptcy cycle into late May that we last saw in 1873 during a Panic Year. Will it repeat? 

• Is it connected to the US debt ceiling?  

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