(3/24) We can be short grains into Sunday at the latest and expect that they will rubber-band bounce next week. Will have to move stops down over the weekend. Cattle waiting on COF report and failed to break much on Thursday but cycles into Monday suggest a strong downward reaction. Cycles are very violent the next few sessions so trade with care.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/24) This market is looking better but really need to take out 360 if it is going to make funds nervous. First pattern completion is at 364 and then at 356. Will take more partial profits off near 360 and move stops down tightly going into Sunday. Unclear how much this market can bounce next week but the surprise should be to the upside.
SHORT-TERM (3/13) Daily stochastics have crossed over issuing a sell signal. Pullbacks could easily to go key weekly chart support at 350-1 and if that goes, 336. Daily chart patterns suggest 321 into late April and early May if South American exports weigh on the market. Weekly chart support for May corn is key at 346.50. Cycle lows dominate into March 26-27. Usually the weeks before the March 31 USDA report are choppy. The market does seem to recover into the USDA report into mid-April but the late winter and early spring trade is still boring. We’ve seen so many conflicting weather forecasts for the spring that we’re not sure what to think. Given worldwide abnormalities this winter, some growing areas are likely to get impacted this year and support higher prices. Our own weather work had seen dry prices in June. Some forecasts are calling for a colder summer than normal, which is not a supportive factor. The chance for higher prices in June is pretty strong and we can probably do a typical hedge or cash sale there. We’re watching mid-June for now.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into March 24-26; higher into March 30-31.
