FOR MONDAY: (5/1) Corn and soybean futures closed a little lower for the day following big first-day deliveries for both crops and forecasts favoring dry planting weather next week in the Midwest. Winter wheat futures closed higher for the day and week ahead of a weekend in which freezing temperatures could threaten headed wheat in the Plains and flooding could hurt SRW wheat in the Midwest. Patterns on wheat suggest higher prices Sunday/Monday before profit-taking and seasonal pressure set in. That may pull corn up. Beans are in trouble and could break hard into Wednesday. Cattle may pull back for a few days from Monday but then seem higher into Friday and hogs are also likely to stall out near 7480 and pull back.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold July bean shorts from 961 with a 973.25 stop. Take partial profits on multiple contracts at 951.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/1) We’re short and looking for at least 950-1. Given this one is the more bearish contract and cycles are weaker into at least Wednesday, we probably don’t have to worry too much above the market coming back to 976. Very likely than a deeper break will happen into Wednesday of next week. Can take partial profits on multiple contracts off at 951 but we feel fine hold into Wednesday of next week. USDA releases its monthly grain and oilseed crush Monday afternoon. Farm Futures expects a soybean crush of 162.7 million bushels, while estimates in a wire service survey are 161 million to 163 million.
FUNDAMENTALS: The weather news may have capped gains. There is a perception the cold, wet conditions could delay corn planting and shift some acres to soybeans. The amount of switching would depend on how many acres had nitrogen. Planting delays have been a concern for Canada’s canola and have pushed that market higher. Old-crop canola months were lower today, but new-crop months were higher again.
SHORT-TERM: (4/18) The most bearish patterns into late April and early May Weekly chart recovery target may only be close to 1100 if we get major problems with weather in June and they often happen. Way too much to ask for without a weather problem.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping Sunday/early Monday; lower into Wednesday.
