We have plenty of tensions rising as we move into April. Geopolitical cycles are intense

into the week of March 12-16 th with increasing war tensions as the US is absurdly

thinking that they can win in a long-term nuclear war against Russia and Russia and

China keeps moving closer to joining forces. There are some climaxes in April 13 th and

the difficult cycle will be dominating until May. In general, This cycle increases tension

and stress and with the war tensions in the air, something is going to pop up in Europe

and Ukraine and we still have China playing games in Taiwan as the US continues its

game of chicken in the skies with Chinese planes.

You can see why April is not going to be a great month for the stock market and the

dollar will continue to rally against the Euro with the dollar going to 110-113 and the

Euro probably falling to 97-101.

Higher dollars tend to hurt gold and it is a myth that gold is a hedge against inflation, in

reality, gold only is sought when governmental trust in currencies goes out the window

which could happen in May and June as the debt ceiling crisis comes to a peak. Gold

has a short-term bounce finally coming but it may not mean much.

Meanwhile, we probably have 2-3 more rate hikes into June, and only when the FED

breaks the camels back and we worry about recession more strongly in the 3 rd and 4 th

quarters, will interest rates come down again and stocks will respond to the second half

of the year with another swoon.

Cycles into April 1-May 6th this will increase world tensions and increase unexpected

events. We might see more earthquakes and natural disasters. .

I have not had enough time to look at all the cycles for the next few years but big the

world debt crisis is not going to go away these problems have been boiling and brewing

for years and governments make wars to get out of crises as was the case with World

War 2 after the depression. I have a sense that 2023 is a better year for prosperity in

the first ½ of the year than 2024 but there is a steady decline coming from the US as we

move into later years in the decade and having your gardens and greenhouses, sources

of power, and being in safe communities are things to think about.

Cycles for stock market look better in May and June but seasonally that is also when

stocks top out. Still, a 13 year cycle is up into June and we need to see how it will

impact certain countries will be dependent on their economies Unlikely it will happen in

the US but the debt ceiling crisis is another way for governments to manipulate us.


The recessionary cycles are peaking itn June 19, 2023. The stock market will initially

like a recession as it means the FED will be forced to lower rates in the 2 nd half of the

year and the market may be trading that idea for the May/June rally.

Looking ahead, we have to look for bargains on defense stocks and sporting goods as a

12 year cycle and will support their growth in the next year above other sectors. We

would look to buy dips at the general stock market low which is early January. The

best ETFs for Defense are ITA and XAR. ITA is a bit overbought but XAR has some

upside potential to 118-20.

Natural gas looks like it has a long-term uptrend and has bottomed and should be

higher into the year 2025. Europe avoided a crisis with a mild winter but how long with

that last? Natural gas has a key 29.5 year cycle and the next 2 years look good. Still,

UNG, the ETF for natural gas did bottom at 7.00 and should not fall more. Natural gas

got to below 2.00 in Feb and should rally to 13.00 eventually and there are still

shortages in the world even if the European cold winter did not manifest this year.

Worldwide food shortages will also fuel inflation as grain cycles are set for a cycle high

into May 2023. There are grain future ETFs like SOYB for soybeans and CORN for

corn and even cotton that will do well this year as there are several drought cycles due

to hit the Midwest this summer and only Mars in watery nakshatras may save us a bit.

BAL is the ETF for cotton. Grain futures may not bottom until April when a wet spring

will delay plantings and then we will have a hot summer.

April 2024 is a pivotal moment for the US. There is a key 248-year cycle of revolution

going back to the US founding. In similar cycles for other great civilizations like Rome,

did lead to a major dethroning of power and it is clear that China wants to take over the

mantle of a world leader and that the US is sinking. Can it be saved? This cycle is

long and carried into 2024-25. There will be a crisis next year but I am more hopeful

now that the 12-year cycle will help a positive transformation into early June 2024.


financial overview


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Mixed grain cycles next few days

FOR MONDAY: (11/19) Cycles are mixed for the next few days with some bias toward lower action. Seasonal the market rallies before Thanksgiving and there is probably enough early winter weather to prevent any serious downward action. Weather should also support meats and they will be hard to sell now and holiday trade can get thin and we try not to trade much in the meat pits before the holidays. Any strong rallies on Mondays may quickly be taken back into Tuesday/Wednesday.Continue reading

Wheat surge offers little spillover

FOR TUESDAY: (11/13) Wheat prices got a big lift to start the week from a round of short-covering that was partially fueled by some domestic and global weather worries, plus some increasing export optimism for U.S. grains. We could get some upward momentum from it carrying into corn and holding beans up for a few more days.Continue reading

China concerns weighing on ag markets

FOR MONDAY: (11/12) Concerns about China are weighing on ag markets, as their growth is faltering and the reality of the Chinese losses are clear in the USDA reports. Winter wheat is losing ground on more moisture, and early winter snows in some areas are supportive. We need to continue to sell rallies in hogs and cattle, as those markets look lower next week.Continue reading

Grains point higher next 1-2 days

FOR FRIDAY: (11/9) Wild ranges on grains are not definitive for providing too many new clues. We see upward action for at least 1-2 days and we’ll see how they act. Some cycles point higher into next Friday. Data is mixed and we worry about seasonals, which are lower into Thanksgiving. Cattle and hogs need to be sold on strength but are still a bit too oversold although that may be remedied soon.Continue reading

Corn will probably hold 375 region until USDA report

FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/7) Trade can often congest in sickly ranges before USDA on Thursday and that makes for boring trade. If you want to gamble on higher prices on Thursday, you can nibble at long corn and beans on Wednesday. Need a 2-3 day bounce on meats to get any risk/reward to sell.Continue reading

Grains look lower Monday

FOR MONDAY: (11/5) USDA report is sneaking in early on Thursday, Nov. 8 and will create congestion before it happens. We anticipate a positive reaction to it based on cycles. Market is still going a bit crazy from on again, off again Tweets around China and nothing definitive now until Dec. 1. Key numbers already came in for grains and if we take out last week’s highs Sunday, it may not be by very much and then sickly congestion. We looked at grain cycles for the rest of the month and at best they my hold up into Nov. 1 and then be lower until right after Thanksgiving. We have to see how high they go before we estimate the next cycle low, and prices for those lows. Hopes or the Dec. 1st China meeting may keep the markets from collapsing.Continue reading

Grains looking higher into Sunday

FOR FRIDAY: (11/2) Trump’s tweets and optimism about China trade pushed grains up sharply and created an early 1-day reversal. Higher prices are due on Friday and probably into Monday. Hard to buy corn with more harvest pressure before the weekend.Continue reading