FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/25) Beans may explode on continued hopes for farm aid and we did have a cycle high due on Wednesday. We still would use the rally to hedge, as the crop is in good shape—especially corn. Hogs failed to recover despite a great Cold Storage report and broke technical support.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (7/25) We had to take some protection in case grains fell more dramatically, and that is still a possibility. At best, we may get up to 374 on Wednesday and then be lower into Friday. This crop is one of the best in a long time if conditions hold and only dry conditions in Europe have been holding it up.
FUNDAMENTALS: Overall yield potential bounced back by around six-tenths of a bushel nationwide, though Monday’s crop ratings varied sharply between eastern and western states. If ratings hold until harvest, this suggests record yields of 180 bushels per acre are possible, at least according to the ratings. Even factoring in the stage of development, yields could still hit 178 bpa, though Vegetation Health Index maps are only 171 to 174 bpa. We’ll update that VHI forecast later today.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Wednesday; lower into Friday.