FOR MONDAY: (8/6) Will warmer weather spook grains higher on Monday? Cycles suggest it could but it would be a bogus secondary high and should be followed by lower prices on Tuesday. Still, this market doesn’t want to go down despite an outlook for a record crop. Cattle may be down for a day and then we would scoop them up. Too tricky to play hogs but they still look lower for a few days.
NOV. SOYBEANS
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (8/6) Beans closed near the high of the day but we were in 16 cents profit at one point and had a good entry the last few days. Resistance is at 907 and 913.50. Chances for new highs are very small. We’re willing to hold out on Monday, as Tuesday looks lower and daily chart turned lower. Something should shift this market to the bears camp soon.
FUNDAMENTALS: The latest survey from a private firm, Farm Futures, estimates U.S. soybean yield potential is currently could approach 2016’s record of 52.1 bpa. A large domestic soybean crop won’t do futures prices any favors: “Without a resolution to the trade dispute with China, increased production could swell leftover soybean supplies on Sept. 1, 2019 above 600 million bushels, keeping the average U.S. cash price below $8.50,” Knorr said.
OVERALL: We doubt that 945 will come in during the short-term and have to get something on but not sure we will be able to.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Aug. 5-6; lower into Aug. 7; higher into Aug. 9-10.
