FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/12) We completed grain cycles for the month and they look like they hold up longer than we originally thought so chances are we can be long at least into April 19-20. Cattle are very overbought now and near key pattern completions and we think pre-holiday profit-taking will set in by Thursday and continue into Monday. We took profits on hogs. There is a bit more to get on the upside but we’re nervous with rollover from April to June hogs on Monday and the cash/futures spreads.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/12) Beans fell to lower support at 941 but came back. We have positive cycles for a few days and the market will next go to 960 and then 976 and cycle highs continue into next week. Have to assume there is a pause here but not the one we want to buy.
OVERALL: Once the report gets out of the way and the market gets over oversold conditions, we have a downward bias still into early May. Need better number to sell from. Seeing at least 933. Freefall on the daily chart would project 895. May look for a 1-2 day bounce and sell again very soon.
SHORT-TERM: (3/13) The most bearish patterns into late April and early May are suggesting 933. Weekly chart recovery target may only be close to 1100.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into April 13; lower into April 14; higher into April 17; higher into April 19; lower April 20- 21; higher into April 23-24; higher into April 25; lower into May 1.
