FOR FRIDAY: (2/17) Clear reversal on wheat and will not take much for beans to follow. Corn did its 6-7 cent retracement and can’t afford to do more.
MARCH CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (2/17) Corn missed the 381 area and has pulled back a hair more than our 6-cent suggestion. If the market takes out 370, something deeper is happening and we’ll not see 387-89. Have to see how it acts in the morning but worried about a sluggish day. Wheat a deeper reversal. Still, in the worst-case scenario, the market would do a 14-cent congestive correction and hold 366.
WEEKLY CHART: (2/10) Close above 375 may be starting to project upper target of 389. We usually get a break in Feb but it doesn’t always happen. Taking out the weekly chart trendline at 351 will be important to allow for something more dramatic to the downside and unlikely to happen with firming exports and hopes for China. Old crop could get some help from ideas growers could slash acreage in 2017 by 4.5 million bushels. If the 90 million new crop acres holds, it suggests December 2017 rallies are possible to the $4.40 level, which would be a profitable place to hedge. With corn showing at loss at current prices, we have to wait quite a while until June as usual. There seems little point in early hedging unless you have cash needs.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower Friday; bottoming Feb. 20 (evening session); recovering higher Feb. 21.