FOR THURSDAY: (12/22) Thin holiday conditions make trading difficult and we can never remember winning before Christmas as stops and big ranges seem to take everyone out so we will stay out of meats–particularly because of a 11 am COF report on Friday toward the end of the trading day. We do favor short grains and will continue to sell bounces. It’s now looking like grains may be done to the downside by Tuesday and recover next week. We usually like to favor shorts into the end of the year but it may be that we get short-covering from oversold conditions into Tuesday’s low.
MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/22) We did get short and the market stayed under the key 1022.50 region. Trade is waiting on Brazilian rains and if they don’t manifest next week, we’ll probably get stopped out. We’re not going to chance it and will exit by the close of Friday. Market may congest before the long weekend but we do favor a breakdown to 985 that may happen by Tuesday and then the market will recover for a week.
OVERALL: The 29-day cycles are weak the next few days and we have a bias toward lower prices into the New Year. South American weather continues to turn bearish Risk is up to 1030 so we may have to put something on.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally lower into Tuesday; recovering into Jan. 3.