FOR FRIDAY: (8/4) Corn and beans put in minimum pattern completions and don’t have to go lower. Wheat is a more ideal buy at 451 and got close and it could hit overnight. Cycles look sideways to higher for grains on Friday and may hold up on Sunday. Next week looks lower. We looked at the last 3 Augusts and they bucked the seasonal pattern to rally in August, which means we can’t count on it. Current swings suggest Aug. 7 high, Aug.11 low, Aug. 22 high. Not sure what to do with crazy meats but have to be patient now at overbought conditions.
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold Dec. corn shorts from 379 with a 382.50 stop. Exit partial at 373.25 and all at 369.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (8/4) We may get out in the morning if the market can’t fall much overnight. We got short last night and have made the minimum 375 area. Last night we were getting projections lower. If you got short, move stops down to 382.50. Take partial profits at 373.25 and more off at 369. Downside is limited. Lately Fridays have been sideways waiting for weekend developments. Very possible for a full moon cycle low into Monday and we’re open but Sunday looks higher.
OVERALL: We could have a congestive rally that stalls under 396 and then a breakdown to 355 is what daily chart patterns suggest. We’re not clear on timing for this but do think that corn will hold up until Thursday.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways to higher Friday; higher Sunday; volatile Monday; lower into Aug. 11.
