FOR MONDAY: (8/7) Corn and beans put in minimum pattern completions and don’t have to go lower but without much of a rally Sunday/Monday, they easily could go lower. Wheat is a more ideal buy at 451 and got close. Cycles look sideways to higher for grains on Sunday. Next week looks lower. We looked at the last 3 Augusts and they bucked the seasonal pattern to rally in August, which means we can’t count on it. Current swings suggest Aug. 7 high, Aug.11 low, Aug. 22 high. If key numbers on grains like 450 on Sept. wheat and 937-42 on Nov. beans at 369 on Dec. corn come in by Monday, then we could start sideways congestion into the USDA report and invert cycles.
NOV. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (8/7) Trade is still selling beans. Support at 952. Without a rally to 970-74, there is no risk/reward. May easily get to 942 this week with additional support at 937.
OVERALL: The last 3 years, Augusts have been lower and bucked the seasonal trend to recover the July swoon. We are not sure we can get a rally to 1018 to sell again but we cannot sell the market near 950.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Sunday; volatile Monday; lower into Aug. 11.
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