FOR MONDAY: (7/9) Lately, weekends have yielded more severe China saber-rattling so that is the problem but cycles suggest higher prices into Tuesday and we can buy pullbacks for a few days on grains for scalpers and bulls but would use rallies to hedge. Seasonally, if we get recoveries into the 2nd week of July, the trade often comes off.
DEC. CORN
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (7/9) The market never went to the slight new low to 357 and took off on pollination concerns. Support now at 371 and 369 if you have to get long but always dangerous. Cycles have been pointing up into July 11 but we’re always concerned about buying the first week of July and decided on focusing on using this 4th-wave rally to hedge. Key resistance at 380.50-381 has to be used for some first hedges. Smaller chance for a breakout to 392 or 396 but if we get up there, have to hedge. Cycle highs dominate into Tuesday with a small chance of bleeding into early Wednesday. Fund can get carried away and have to jump on some chances. Experts feel that 2 weeks of hot and dry are needed to impact the crop. First shift in the forecast and the commercials will be selling looking for 340.
OVERALL: I suspect that we have to use strength to hedge Dec. corn at the 380.50 and 389 region.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally higher into July 11; lower into July 12-13.
