FOR FRIDAY: (9/14) Not sure we learned much on Thursday. With weekend harvest pressure, it may be too much to expect a short-covering bounce or a rally on Monday but it’s still early in the harvest season so maybe not too much pressure. Cycles suggest short-covering on Friday and higher prices on Monday. The wild card going into the weekend is Hurricane Florence. The spin and hype around these hurricanes often is worse than the actuality but we’ve seen rather dire things happen. Hurricane Florence is expected to influence crop production along the Atlantic coast, especially in North Carolina. The damage and recovery time to get back to normal will be a concern for traders as the balance of the week unfolds. Hard to say how many acres are influenced or how much permanent damage there will be but we are not dealing with the I- states in the Midwest, so in the end it won’t mean much for grains. We do see grains recovering on Monday into early next week, and ideally patterns to the downside would be done at 347 on Dec. corn and 811-813 on Nov. beans at 494-7 on Dec. wheat so that a natural rally would be due anyway.
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (9/14) Yesterday’s 25-cent bounce off of the lows was just enough to prevent a buy signal. While natural resistance is at 850-1, if that came in, it would issue a more serious buy signal and prevent the move to 811-813. We still see harvest lows toward 777 on the larger pattern. Looking for research on the impact of the hurricane but it may be that very small areas are threatened by flooding rains and the trade isn’t thinking about it much. Hard to bottom pick before 811-13 comes in but running out of time for it to happen although possible Wednesday of next week.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Friday into Sunday/Monday.
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