FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/19) We hate trading grain weather markets and should give it up and now that computerized funds have taken over it’s more challenging. We have a bias for a recovery on Wednesday but any new sneezes in the wrong direction from the weather people and we could be wrong. Latest forecast adds more heat and dryness but could change at 6 am. Technically we had a grain breakdown last week for corn and wheat. This week’s recovery is a bounce and the market is almost always down the last week of July so I expect that next break will come then.
NOV. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold Nov. bean longs from 1001.50 with a 993.50 stop. Exit partials at 1021.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (7/19) We did manage to get filled. Don’t want 998 to come out and we should see at least 1021 and may get out quickly given how crazy this market is. Market will easily get up to 1022 with a 78% retracement up to 1033. Given late pollination and plenty of time left here, we have stay open to the 1066 daily chart projection. Cycles are positive into Thursday and stress from weather may continue to add weather premium a few more days.
OVERALL: Technically action is disastrous but we can get recoveries later in the year if there are problems with podding later and yields drop. The projection to 1096 is not out of the question given current weekly chart patterns. Still might see 1069 if weather supports the next week.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering higher Wednesday; lower Thursday.
