FOR TUESDAY: (5/23) Bean plantings were below expectations for 56% but still average for this time of year. The 29/30 day cycles are lower on Tuesday and are inclined to expect lower prices for a few days now. Need to see wheat break; otherwise we would be concerned. The cycle into Thursday is often rather bearish for many markets and we would rather be short cattle and grains.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/23) Beans closed below their highs and we had thought that 961 wouldn’t come out, and so far we’re correct. Willing to be short a few days here and see if a deeper break can develop as 933 never came in to complete major patterns to the downside. Daily chart patterns have suggested easily 933-931 next week.
OVERALL: First resistance up to 951 and max. to 957. Next push down should go to 934.50. Daily chart suggesting 895 and if acreage increases, it’s possible. For now the trade is blown out by the scandal in Brazil.
NEAR TERM: (5/12) Five waves down projects a minimum of 931 and the extended target of 895 doesn’t seem that likely. We think a May planting low should be in by May 24 but it could extend into the Memorial Day weekend. We should get a recovery into June 12 and June 16 and the lower into the June 30 USDA reports. Market breaking 928 could lead to 895 and not expecting 1003 to come out now to the upside into mid-June.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into May 24; higher into May 26; May 29-31 low.
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