FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/27) Wheat remains bid but beans broke enough that we can relax a bit more and corn isn’t doing much. Good chance for a bounce on grains for Wednesday but it’s harvest time. Trade may start congesting before Friday’s grain stocks report – as if we need another report. Still, harvest pressure should still win out.
NOV. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold Nov. bean shorts from 969 with a 989.50 stop.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (9/27) We took partial profits off at 965.50. Support is major at 957.60 and bounces probably won’t take out 970 now. Use rallies to get short if you’re not in.
Unlike corn, soybean’s harvest progress is more in line with seasonal averages. This year’s crop is currently 10% harvested, compared with 9% in 2016 and 12% for the five-year average. Harvest has progressed furthest in Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Indiana and Nebraska (in that order).
FUNDAMENTALS: Reviewing 2016/17 soybean import data (which runs September 2016 – August 2017), Brazil once again topped the list of countries importing soybeans to China, with 1.586 billion bushels. The U.S. was the clear No. 2 soybean importer to China, with 1.369 billion bushels. And Argentina was a distant third, at 271 million bushels.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Wednesday.
