FOR THURSDAY: (3/30) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Will it happen on Friday at the report announcement? Starting to seem that way. Stats often have the market lower after the March acreage report. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long, and market does look higher after the report into early next week. Dollar and crude are starting to recover, with the latter a positive for grains.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Buy July corn at 361.75 with a 358.75 stop.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/30) Willing to buy a secondary low but not going to chase the market. May futures did fulfill some downside objectives Monday on the way to new 2017 lows, though the market isn’t yet completely oversold on momentum indicators. We see short-covering this week and it continues into next week–and in case it turns into something bigger, we’ll have a light long position in place. Key support at 350 and 343 next if bounces are week and we break down later in April.
SHORT-TERM (3/13) Daily stochastics have crossed over issuing a sell signal. Pullbacks could easily to go key weekly chart support at 350-1 and if that goes, 336. Daily chart patterns suggest 321 into late April and early May if South American exports weigh on the market. Weekly chart support for May corn is key at 346.50. Cycle lows dominate into March 26-27. Usually the weeks before the March 31 USDA report are choppy. The market does seem to recover into the USDA report into mid-April but the late winter and early spring trade is still boring. We’ve seen so many conflicting weather forecasts for the spring that we’re not sure what to think. Given worldwide abnormalities this winter, some growing areas are likely to get impacted this year and support higher prices. Our own weather work had seen dry places in June. Some forecasts are calling for a colder summer than normal, which is not a supportive factor. The chance for higher prices in June is pretty strong and we can probably do a typical hedge or cash sale there. We’re watching mid-June for now.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into March 30-31.
