FOR MONDAY: (6/19) Can wheat continue to lead the way when corn and beans will be ok? We hate going into these weather weekends and have to use big stops to deal with the craziness on the news. The speculative cycle that topped grains last year is due right here so even if there’s a final flourish higher for Sept wheat to 490 or 500-1 over the next few days, that should be it. The issue is how much it will bring funds along for the ride into as late as Tuesday night? We still think that grains could be down hard on Sunday/Monday even if there’s a final recovery. Still, we found one more cycle that usually keeps grains up into Tuesday night or early Wednesday so we won’t get too aggressive with top-picking yet. We would continue to use strength to get rid of cash and get hedges on. Cattle seem lower for a few more days.
SEPT. CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (6/19) The funds love weather stories but not sure how long the market will keep it up but hot and dry in Europe will continue to feed this market and 490 is an easy target now. Support at 473.50 and 467. Could hit 490 and come off hard and then make a divergent high by Tuesday night. Most extended target is 500-1. It could be that Tuesday night or early Wednesday will lead to 500-1 and that will be it. Cycles suggest a speculative peak here. While the heat wave in Europe has raised concerns for the wheat there, that crop should be close to mature with harvest due to start next month. Newly planted Australia wheat has encountered dry conditions.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Volatile Sunday night/Monday