FOR FRIDAY: (2/10) Grains closed firm with beans failing the most. Possible that the market could hold up one more day but then the grains should turn lower next week. Hogs look lower and still need a deeper break of 7000 to confirm a top; cattle continue to look a bit sickly.
MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (2/10) Market closed below upper resistance at 1061 which hit exactly. Need 1040 and 1035 to come out to issue a more definitive sell signal. Any new flooding could take the market up to 1084 but seems unlikely. We had put on some hedges at the open and waiting on the confirmation break.
OVERALL: It’s hard to get too beared up about beans because there is a sense that they will eventually go to 1108 or 1120 if we are patient into March. If you have immediate needs for cash, we will consider some sales here.
WEEKLY CHART: (2/2) Three waves up projects 1120 but wondering if it has a chance now without new weather or whether it will happen as early as early March. Major weekly chart resistance is at 1157 but it would take another weather crisis to get it higher. Selling 90% of old crop in the 1100-1120 region makes sense given a huge acreage coming. While we see problems in June with this market, any trade problems with China could lead to a plunge to 920. The market has gotten ahead of itself with funds jumping on flooding in SA but somehow Mother Nature finds a way to rebalance. Cycles are weak in February. Beans will pull back to at least 1000-992 into late February.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping Friday; lower Sunday/Monday/Tuesday; recovering Wednesday; lower Thursday/Friday; bottoming Feb. 20 (evening session); recovering higher Feb. 21.
