FOR MONDAY: (11/21) Grains look lower early next week but seasonals often support pre-Thanksgiving buying so we will have to wait for clues in the morning or top-pick. Cycles do look weak the next few sessions so we may get away with it for beans in particular. Cattle on feed was neutral and market is overbought so we can get short for specs and hedgers. Cold storage is Tuesday for pork.
MARCH CORN (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/21) We’re rolling to the March contract, which is trading about 8 cents over Dec. Breakout on Nov. 18 lessens the chances for new lows, with March having key resistance at 355.50-356.00. Above there a breakout to 364 downtrending channel resistance would happen. Seasonally the market is often higher the week before Thanksgiving and often afterwards but cycles this year suggest a pullback into at least Tuesday, Nov. 22. The week after Thanksgiving also looks lower. Will need to monitor price and pattern action into Nov. 20-21. Not in a rush to top-pick given seasonals but there may be reason to sell if the market fails.
OVERALL: There are so many vulnerable spots in January with the larger cycles that we do not know how long we can hold out waiting for it. Fundamentals are not supportive at this point either. Sept. corn got as low as 312 last August and monthly chart patterns would allow 279 if there are not bullish factors coming to roost. At the moment, 300 corn would not be shocking and if you have reason for early sales we will jump on more hedges and sales near 387 basis March. Rally into late Dec. and possibly mid-January are typical set ups for new sales.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Sunday; lower into Monday/Tuesday; higher Wednesday; closed on Thursday.
