FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/25) Grains may complete retracements overnight and recover . Still, the market is a bit heavy and if there is a 5th wave up, we should use it to get short. We had grains completion cycles upward by Sunday and if we make a double-top or divergent high on corn, we would sell. Beans are more problematic without 1107 or 1120 coming in and wheat is struggling like always. Cold storage report was friendly for pork and we need to be long. Cattle should recover on Wednesday but then be sideways into the report on Friday.
MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/25) Market should hold 1046.75 even if the key 1051 region comes out. This can be still called a 4th-wave pullback and cycles are higher on Wednesday and we probably will buy in the morning if the market doesn’t get any bad news. Technically, the point- and-figure got triggered but not on a closing basis but it’s a yellow flag and new buys have to be done carefully. Whether 1092 or 1107 really has a chance is now up in the air at this late point in time.
WEEKLY CHART: (1/25) Three waves up projects 1120 into late January. Major weekly chart resistance is at 1157 but it would take another weather crisis to get it higher. Selling 90% of old crop in the 1100-1120 region makes sense given a huge acreage coming. While we see problems in June with this market, any trade problems with China could lead to a plunge to 920. The market has gotten ahead of itself with funds jumping on flooding in SA but somehow Mother Nature finds a way to rebalance. Cycles are weak in February. Beans will pull back to at least 1000-992 into late February.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally higher into Jan. 27-30; lower into Feb. 1.
