FOR TUESDAY: (12/27) Grains may be done to the downside by Tuesday and recover next week. We usually like to favor shorts into the end of the year but it may be that we get short-covering from oversold conditions into Tuesday’s low. The Dec. 1 cattle on-feed report looked neutral to a bit negative: on feed, 99%; placed in November, 115%; marketed in November, 117%. The Dec. 1 Hogs & Pigs report was a bearish surprise: total hogs, 104%; kept for breeding, 101%; kept for market, 104%.
MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/27) We took partial profits at 1001 on Friday. To get the full 985 target you would have to hold over the weekend and deal with the possibility of a shift in Brazilian weather forecasts. There is a way to manage that with trailing stops and gaps up shouldn’t be indefensible.
OVERALL: The 29-day cycles are weak the next few days and we have a bias toward lower prices into the New Year. South American weather continues to turn bearish Risk is up to 1030 so we may have to put something on.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally lower into Tuesday; recovering into Jan. 3.
