FOR THURSDAY: (7/19) Cool and dry forecasts into the end of the month may continue to put a floor on this market. We almost never get rallies during this part of the 29/30-day forecast so it will be hard to press longs after short-covering the last few days. Thursdays tend to be lower in Chicago so we’ll give it a chance to pull back and not chase.
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (7/19) Market held 850 and could to straight to 868 if really friendly and then a set-back. Major resistance still at 871 and 875. The point-and-figure chart turned up, projecting 875-876 or max. 906 if the cool and dry situation continues. Cycle highs are due into July 25. Will need a lot more good news to get the market higher. We’ll wait for additional hedges until 875- 876 comes in.
FUNDAMENTALS: Old and new crop export sales are expected to nearly double from last week in tomorrow’s report, topping 20 million bushels. While Chinese tariffs remain a dark cloud, harvest prices out of the Gulf delivered are competitive with Brazil, even with the 25% penalty. Other buyers aren’t standing on their hands either. USDA announced the sale of 7.3 million bushels of new crop to Pakistan today under its daily reporting system for large purchases.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping and lower on Thursday; higher into July 25.
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