FOR FRIDAY: (12/22) We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions.
JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/22) Support at 943.75. If that level holds by Monday, the market may be a 1-week buy and we would need SA weather to cooperate. Grain cycles are at odds but we’ll go with higher prices much of next week after Tuesday and do not see a major sale until Jan. 2-3. We’re concerned that with oversold conditions some kind of bounce has to happen but can’t count on it and daily chart patterns suggesting 921. Large stocks and yield-gifting South American rains continue to weigh heavily on this commodity. May be hard for the market to take out 960 again if there is no problem in South America. We’re going to have to roll to the March contract when we publish on Jan. 1.
OVERALL: Daily chart pattern projects 889 but we can’t wrap our head around that happening for now.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower Friday/Tuesday; higher into Dec. 28 into Jan 2-3; lower into Jan. 8-9; higher into January 11.
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