FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/2) Grains turned lower today after our concerns last night and broke key levels on corn with even Nov. beans finally taking out 985. We could see grains recovering for a day before harvest pressure takes over again. Hogs may finish a 2-day correction and then a buy is setting up into Friday.
DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/2) With the break below 350, we can relax even if there’s a minor bounce but usually when these falls happen at harvest, they get ugly quickly. Resistance at 351.50 overnight with support at 341. First 3-wave pattern completion on the daily chart is at 345. There are some cycles that turn up starting Wednesday so there’s reason to take partial profits and sell more on rallies.
OVERALL: Seasonals turn down here and we’re not sure what it will take to get this market tanking. Oats are strongly higher and they may be having a spillover influence. In the big scheme of things after falling 1.30, a 40-cent rally isn’t much. Proportions on the daily chart project 279 into harvest with extended lower prices to 262 seeming rather unthinkable.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Bottoming Wednesday; recovering into Thursday morning.
JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (11/2) Beans fell apart. Reason with patterns and cycles to take some partial profits of at 983 but we’ll try to position trade with the breakdown. Lower support to 960.
OVERALL: In the end we need to get to 870-890 but markets never go straight down. That would lead to at least 890 to complete 5 waves down since the June cycle high. Lower support is down to 883-886. This would seem to be the minimum target area for harvest low.
WEEKLY CHART: (9/2) We’re 100% hedged from 1098 and 1180 and 1080 and 955. Seems like final harvest low could be close to 870.